109 SE Churchill Way

Lawton, OK 73501

$185,000D+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,778 sqft · Built 1999 · SingleFamily · Pending · 38 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,487/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax + insurance: −$250
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$312
• Net cashflow: $-45/mo
• Annual: $-541/yr
• Cap rate: 6.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.04%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $51,800

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-45 ($-541/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $177k (4.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $149k (19.6% below list).
• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $149k (19.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-0.7%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#206 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, commute F.
• Lawton (urban): math 20% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #137 of 270 in OK (top 51%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Sullivan Village Es (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #354 of 845 statewide, top 47%, 433 students, 0% FRL); Macarthur Ms (math 16% / reading 31%, grade F, #113 of 345 statewide, top 34%, 865 students, 0% FRL); Macarthur Hs (math 19% / reading 34%, grade F, #139 of 447 statewide, top 31%, 1,163 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 54% district-wide (54 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 120 active listings in the ZIP; 133 units permitted in Comanche County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Comanche County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $149k; 24% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($50k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.