109 SE Churchill Way · Lawton, OK 73501

$185,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,778 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1999 7,200 sqft lot Est $210k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.8/15.0
• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• Appreciation +4.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Wonderful updated home walking distance to MacArthur Jr & Highschool. Large covered front porch 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, 2 living area. Above ground safe room. Large living area opens to awesome, dining area & kitchen. Breakfast bar, French doors to tiled sun room. Freshly painted interior. New LVP floors throughout. New fence in back yard with new sod. Oversized 2 car garage. Call 580-248-8800 for showings or text 580-581-7870 for more details.

Key facts

• New lvp floors
• Updated home
• Breakfast bar

Tags

• UPDATED HOME
• LARGE COVERED FRONT PORCH
• ABOVE GROUND SAFE ROOM
• BREAKFAST BAR
• FRENCH DOORS TO TILED SUN ROOM
• NEW LVP FLOORS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2 covered spaces; 2-car garage with garage door opener
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Updated / remodeled; Brick veneer construction; Slab foundation; R-1 single family zoning; City street frontage (publicly maintained road); Lot approximately 7,200 sq ft (120 x 60)
• Construction: Built with brick veneer; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio and porch; Wood fencing; Composition roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Dishwasher; Disposal; Range hood; Electric water heater
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 three-quarter bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Heat pump (heating and cooling); Central air; Ceiling fans; Electric cooling components
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Double-pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-45 ($-541/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $177k (4.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $149k (19.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $149k (19.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#206 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, commute F.
• Lawton (urban): math 20% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #137 of 270 in OK (top 51%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Sullivan Village Es (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #354 of 845 statewide, top 47%, 433 students, 0% FRL); Macarthur Ms (math 16% / reading 31%, grade F, #113 of 345 statewide, top 34%, 865 students, 0% FRL); Macarthur Hs (math 19% / reading 34%, grade F, #139 of 447 statewide, top 31%, 1,163 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 54% district-wide (54 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 120 active listings in the ZIP; 133 units permitted in Comanche County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($50k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.7%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Comanche County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $149k; 24% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $148,706 (19.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.04%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $209,804
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
109 SE Churchill Way	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,800 (+1%)	1mo	$190,000	$106	97
104 NE 52nd St	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,800 (+1%)	6mo	$240,000	$133	80
4811 NE Columbia Ave	0.21mi	4/2.0	1,700 (-4%)	8mo	$239,000	$141	76
106 SE Churchill Way	0.06mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,600 (-10%)	4mo	$187,000	$117	72
112 NE 48th St	0.35mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,700 (-4%)	1mo	$207,000	$122	71
118 SE Churchill Way	0.03mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,600 (-10%)	8mo	$183,000	$114	70
4625 NE Columbia Ave	0.39mi	4/2.0	1,900 (+7%)	2mo	$227,000	$119	69
4521 NE Highlander Cir	0.62mi	4/2.0	1,800 (+1%)	8mo	$212,000	$118	63
4635 SE Mieling Dr	0.43mi	4/1.5	1,700 (-4%)	10mo	$180,000	$106	63
238 NE 46th St	0.59mi	4/2.0	1,900 (+7%)	2mo	$225,000	$118	59
413 NE 46th St	0.57mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,900 (+7%)	6mo	$170,000	$89	52
4601 SE Brighton Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,600 (-10%)	7mo	$137,500	$86	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.71% appreciation · 1.7% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-16,293
• Equity at exit: $47,252

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-7,995
• Equity at exit: $51,866

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 73501

• Home prices YoY: -0.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 120
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,487 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$173 /mo · $2,071/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$312
• Net cashflow: $-45

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,544

Max offer price $177,042

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $60	-5% $7	+0% $-45	+5% $-97	+10% $-150
Rent	-10% $-163	-5% $-104	+0% $-45	+5% $14	+10% $72
Rate	-1.0pp $48	-0.5pp $2	base $-45	+0.5pp $-93	+1.0pp $-142

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-19
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-15
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-04-10
   listed $185,000 Active
4. 2005-10-07
   soldstatus $149,000
5. 2003-04-01
   soldstatus $114,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OK · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,071 · $173/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,071 · $173/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,845
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$2,071
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,428
• − Management: −$1,428
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable loss: −$3,751
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$900
• After-tax cash flow: $360/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lawton
• NCES district ID: 4017250
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $42,618
• Composite: 19.68/100
• National rank: #8732
• State rank: #137 of 270 in OK

Livability — Lawton

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #206
• US rank: #15131

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lawton, OK
• County: Comanche County · 96,361 people
• City population: 89,233
• Metro: Lawton, OK
• Population (ZIP): 20,397
• Household income: $49,741
• Rent vs Own: 54.8% rent · 45.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 742.0

Population outlook (Comanche County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 124,518 people
• By 2030: 124,231 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 122,193 · -1.9%
• By 2050: 120,368 · -3.3%
• By 2075: 120,492 · -3.2%
• By 2100: 123,113 · -1.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Black 20% Two or more races 18% Hispanic / Latino 14% Native American 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 8% Tagalog/Filipino 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Comanche

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.3) · D 37.4% · R 60.7% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.8pp toward R · 2008: -17.5pp · 2024: -23.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.3 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+23.7 2012: R+17.0 2008: R+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.71%
• Current HPI: 172.4877
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.70%
• Metro: Lawton, OK
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B

Price history

+61.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — LBRMLS
• 2026-04-15 Contingent — LBRMLS
• 2026-04-10 Listed $185,000 LBRMLS
• 2005-10-07 Sold (Public Records) $149,000 Public Records
• 2003-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $114,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,071 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.