9424 Goshen Ln

Burke, VA 22015

$628,785D

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,232 sqft · Built 1972 · MultiFamily · Coming Soon · 1 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,402/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,297
• Tax + insurance: −$1,048
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,134
• Net cashflow: $-78/mo
• Annual: $-934/yr
• Cap rate: 6.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.53%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $176,060

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 3-bed/1.5-bath units multifamily listed at $629k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-78 ($-934/yr) — negative. Per door: $-39/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $618k (1.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $540k (14.1% below list).
• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $540k (14.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $19k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#34 in VA, #799 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities D, cost of living F.
• Fairfax County Public School District (suburban): math 61% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #13 of 131 in VA (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Keene Mill Elementary (math 87% / reading 90%, grade A+, #27 of 1,108 statewide, top 3%, 769 students, 18% FRL); Kings Glen Elementary (math 66% / reading 78%, grade A, #65 of 342 statewide, top 21%, 422 students, 28% FRL); Lake Braddock Secondary (math 81% / reading 89%, grade A, #21 of 319 statewide, top 6%, 4,377 students, 20% FRL) — zoned schools at 22% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 82% at this address vs 67% district-wide (+15 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Fairfax County Public School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 96 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,861 units permitted in Fairfax County in 2024 (1,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Fairfax County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 2.7% in Burke — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($173k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.