9424 Goshen Ln · Burke, VA 22015

$628,785

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,232 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1972

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.3/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

Your morning coffee just got a serious upgrade. Welcome to 9424 Goshen Lane, this rare end-unit duplex offers a front-row seat to the best of Lake Braddock living. Situated just steps from the water’s edge, this home offers a full view of the lake in all its wonder. From the graceful local wildlife to the breathtaking, vibrant shift of the changing seasons, your backyard is a front-row seat to nature's finest show. Inside, the home features three bedrooms and three full baths and plenty of room to relax after a day spent enjoying the neighborhood’s amenities. The community is packed with ways to stay active, including two sparkling pools, tennis and basketball courts, tot lots a

Key facts

• Backyard to nature
• Two sparkling pools
• Scenic paths

Tags

• FULL VIEW OF THE LAKE
• BACKYARD TO NATURE
• TWO SPARKLING POOLS
• TENNIS AND BASKETBALL COURTS
• SCENIC PATHS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Multi-family property; 2 stories
• Construction: 2 total floors in building

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3.5 bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 3-bed/1.5-bath units multifamily listed at $629k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-78 ($-934/yr) — negative. Per door: $-39/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $618k (1.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $540k (14.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $540k (14.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 2.7% in Burke — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#34 in VA, #799 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities D, cost of living F.
• Fairfax County Public School District (suburban): math 61% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #13 of 131 in VA (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Keene Mill Elementary (math 87% / reading 90%, grade A+, #27 of 1,108 statewide, top 3%, 769 students, 18% FRL); Kings Glen Elementary (math 66% / reading 78%, grade A, #65 of 342 statewide, top 21%, 422 students, 28% FRL); Lake Braddock Secondary (math 81% / reading 89%, grade A, #21 of 319 statewide, top 6%, 4,377 students, 20% FRL) — zoned schools at 22% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 82% at this address vs 67% district-wide (+15 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Fairfax County Public School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 96 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,861 units permitted in Fairfax County in 2024 (1,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($173k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $19k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fairfax County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $540,200 (14.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.53%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.46% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-104,253
• Equity at exit: $93,754

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-86,429
• Equity at exit: $54,366

Cash invested: $176,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22015

• Rents YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 96
• Price-to-rent: 19.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,402 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,297
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$786 /mo · $9,432/yr
• Insurance: −$262
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,134
• Net cashflow: $-78

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,500

Max offer price $617,525

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $357	-5% $139	+0% $-78	+5% $-295	+10% $-512
Rent	-10% $-505	-5% $-291	+0% $-78	+5% $136	+10% $349
Rate	-1.0pp $239	-0.5pp $82	base $-78	+0.5pp $-241	+1.0pp $-407

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	3	1.5	$5,402
Total (2 units)			$5,402

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $157,196
• Closing costs: $18,864
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5822 Burke Manor Ct Burke, VA	3.0	1.5	1205	$2,850	$2.37	45d	1	0.64mi
4936 McFarland Dr Fairfax, VA	4.0	2.5	1287	$2,800	$2.18	45d	1	1.09mi
6021 Bonnie Bern Ct Burke, VA	3.0	2.5	1232	$2,550	$2.07	4d	1	1.14mi
5626 Fort Corloran Dr Burke, VA	3.0	2.5	1449	$3,600	$2.48	14d	1	1.26mi
5718 Wood Mouse Ct Burke, VA	4.0	2.5	1428	$2,950	$2.07	26d	1	1.26mi
10030 Wood Sorrels Ln Burke, VA	3.0	3.5	1480	$3,300	$2.23	6d	1	1.32mi
10050 Wood Sorrels Ln Burke, VA	4.0	2.0	1054	$3,400	$3.23	0d	1	1.35mi
5019 Fleming Dr Annandale, VA	4.0	3.0	1176	$4,000	$3.40	9d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-22
   price $628,785 Coming Soon 1 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   remarks 687-char remark
3. 2026-06-21
   listed $685,000 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $64,824
• − Mortgage interest: −$35,222
• − Property taxes: −$9,432
• − Insurance: −$3,144
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,186
• − Management: −$5,186
• − Depreciation: −$18,292
• Taxable loss: −$11,637
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,793
• After-tax cash flow: $1,859/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fairfax County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101260
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $110,238
• Composite: 62.59/100
• National rank: #679
• State rank: #13 of 131 in VA

Livability — Burke

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #34
• US rank: #799

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Burke, VA
• County: Fairfax County · 1,104,456 people
• City population: 44,647
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 44,647
• Household income: $172,563
• Rent vs Own: 15.0% rent · 85.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 536.0

Population outlook (Fairfax County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,237,259 people
• By 2030: 1,277,758 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,346,508 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 1,397,919 · +13.0%
• By 2075: 1,493,100 · +20.7%
• By 2100: 1,465,712 · +18.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Asian 18% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 12% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 5% Korean 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Fairfax

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+35.0) · D 66.1% · R 31.1% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +13.8pp toward D · 2008: 21.2pp · 2024: 35.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+35.0 2020: D+41.9 2016: D+36.2 2012: D+19.8 2008: D+21.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -385.72%
• Current HPI: 339.6002
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.46%
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B