Holly Plan

Florence, AZ 85132

$296,990F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,370 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 367 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,897/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,924
• Tax + insurance: −$612
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$398
• Net cashflow: $-1,037/mo
• Annual: $-12,447/yr
• Cap rate: 2.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.12%
• DSCR: 0.46
• 1% rule: 0.52%
• Cash to close: $102,740

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $297k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $217k (27.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (36.1% below list).
• It's been on market 367 days — a 12% lower offer ($261k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $190k (36.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#187 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Florence Unified School District (4437) (rural): math 16% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #178 of 249 in AZ (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Florence High School (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #343 of 381 statewide, top 93%, 796 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools at 44% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 1144 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 53d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 52% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 2.9% vs local median 3.7% in Florence — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 367 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.