Holly Plan · Florence, AZ 85132

$296,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,370 sqft · SingleFamily · 367 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Cash flow +3.9/30.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• 1% rule +0.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Open-concept living with three bedrooms and a covered back patio. Enjoy a private primary suite with a walk-in closet. Plus, every home comes with a washer, dryer, fridge and whole home blinds.

Key facts

• Whole home blinds
• Walk-in closet
• Covered back patio

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING
• COVERED BACK PATIO
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• WASHER DRYER FRIDGE
• WHOLE HOME BLINDS

🏗️ New construction. The $296,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $366,928.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $297k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $217k (27.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (36.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $190k (36.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 2.9% vs local median 3.7% in Florence — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#187 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Florence Unified School District (4437) (rural): math 16% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #178 of 249 in AZ (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Florence High School (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #343 of 381 statewide, top 93%, 796 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools at 44% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 1144 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 53d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 52% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 367 days — a 12% lower offer ($261k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $189,685 (36.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 367 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.52% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.12%
• DSCR: 0.46
• GRM: 16.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $366,928
• List price: $296,990
• Delta: -19.06%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5458 W Montebello Way	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,480 (+8%)	5mo	$286,000	$193	69
6453 W Heritage Way	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,381 (+1%)	1mo	$307,765	$223	65
3405 N San Marin Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,481 (+8%)	13mo	$248,000	$167	59
6466 W Heritage Way	0.71mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,381 (+1%)	7mo	$304,000	$220	55
5590 W Victory Way	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,481 (+8%)	16mo	$294,000	$199	54
4290 N Presidio Dr	0.36mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,557 (+14%)	9mo	$428,500	$275	48
6375 W Heritage Way	0.64mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,495 (+9%)	10mo	$343,999	$230	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.27% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -40.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.25×
• Total profit: $-128,738
• Equity at exit: $54,710

10-year hold

• IRR: -78.2%
• Equity multiple: -1.04×
• Total profit: $-209,917
• Equity at exit: $31,725

Cash invested: $102,740 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 19 active · 8 under contract
• Months of supply: 16.3 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $329,500 ($220/sqft)
• Median days on market: 186 d
• This list price: 16% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +21.5% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 85132

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 1144
• Price-to-rent: 13.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,897 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,924
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$459 /mo · $5,504/yr
• Insurance: −$153
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$398
• Net cashflow: $-1,037

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,210

Max offer price $216,837

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-784	-5% $-910	+0% $-1,037	+5% $-1,164	+10% $-1,291
Rent	-10% $-1,187	-5% $-1,112	+0% $-1,037	+5% $-962	+10% $-887
Rate	-1.0pp $-852	-0.5pp $-944	base $-1,037	+0.5pp $-1,132	+1.0pp $-1,229

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $91,732
• Closing costs: $11,008
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3759 N Astoria Dr Florence, AZ	3.0	2.0	1759	$1,645	$0.94	26d	1	0.04mi
3759 N Astoria Dr Florence, AZ	3.0	2.0	1759	$1,645	$0.94	10d	1	0.04mi
3759 N Astoria Dr Florence, AZ	3.0	2.0	1759	$1,645	$0.94	28d	1	0.04mi
5424 W Heritage Way Florence, AZ	3.0	2.0	1481	$1,750	$1.18	90d	1	0.23mi
5430 W Montebello Way Florence, AZ	3.0	2.0	1481	$1,650	$1.11	129d	1	0.31mi
5614 W Montebello Way Florence, AZ	3.0	2.0	1481	$1,600	$1.08	118d	1	0.33mi
5614 W Montebello Way Florence, AZ	3.0	2.0	1481	$1,600	$1.08	121d	1	0.33mi
6431 W Sandpiper Way Florence, AZ	2.0	2.0	1817	$3,000	$1.65	10d	1	0.76mi
2926 N Coronado Dr Florence, AZ	3.0	2.0	1756	$1,900	$1.08	83d	1	0.86mi
2926 N Coronado Dr Florence, AZ	3.0	2.0	1756	$2,200	$1.25	184d	1	0.86mi
6566 W Mockingbird Ct Florence, AZ	2.0	2.0	1381	$3,000	$2.17	184d	1	0.87mi
3947 N Hidden Canyon Dr Florence, AZ	2.0	2.0	1381	$3,000	$2.17	184d	1	0.94mi
6660 W Pleasant Oak Ct Florence, AZ	3.0	2.0	1780	$1,800	$1.01	10d	1	1.14mi
6660 W Pleasant Oak Ct Florence, AZ	3.0	2.0	1780	$1,800	$1.01	21d	1	1.14mi
6660 W Pleasant Oak Ct Florence, AZ	3.0	2.0	1780	$1,800	$1.01	23d	1	1.14mi
4518 N Petersburg Dr Florence, AZ	2.0	2.0	1644	$2,500	$1.52	165d	1	1.18mi
4394 N Hummingbird Dr Florence, AZ	2.0	2.0	1586	$3,500	$2.21	184d	1	1.43mi
2327 N Pecos Dr Florence, AZ	2.0	2.0	1251	$1,550	$1.24	15d	1	1.47mi
2327 N Pecos Dr Florence, AZ	2.0	2.0	1251	$1,740	$1.39	53d	1	1.47mi
2327 N Pecos Dr Florence, AZ	2.0	2.0	1251	$1,550	$1.24	7d	1	1.47mi
2327 N Pecos Dr Florence, AZ	2.0	2.0	1251	$1,550	$1.24	10d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $296,990 Active 367 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $296,990 Active 366 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $296,990 Active 365 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $296,990 Active 364 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $296,990 Active 363 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $296,990 Active 361 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $296,990 Active 360 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $296,990 Active 359 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $296,990 Active 358 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $296,990 Active 357 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $296,990 Active 356 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $296,990 Active 355 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $296,990 Active 354 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $296,990 Active 353 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $296,990 Active 352 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $296,990 Active 351 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $296,990 Active 350 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    pricedays on market $296,990 Active 349 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $321,990 Active 348 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $321,990 Active 347 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $321,990 Active 346 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $321,990 Active 345 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $321,990 Active 344 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $321,990 Active 343 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $321,990 Active 342 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $321,990 Active 341 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $321,990 Active 340 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $321,990 Active 339 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $321,990 Active 338 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $321,990 Active 337 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $321,990 Active 336 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $321,990 Active 335 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $321,990 Active 334 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $321,990 Active 333 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $321,990 Active 332 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $321,990 Active 331 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $321,990 Active 330 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $321,990 Active 329 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $321,990 Active 328 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $321,990 Active 327 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $321,990 Active 326 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $321,990 Active 325 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $321,990 Active 324 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $321,990 Active 323 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $321,990 Active 322 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $321,990 Active 321 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $321,990 Active 320 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $321,990 Active 319 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $321,990 Active 318 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $321,990 Active 317 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,762
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,554
• − Property taxes: −$5,504
• − Insurance: −$1,835
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,821
• − Management: −$1,821
• − Depreciation: −$10,674
• Taxable loss: −$19,446
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,667
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,780/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 5 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $6,850–$20,550 screening

This home is in good condition with a modern and well-maintained interior and exterior. It is ready for a fresh coat of paint and landscaping improvements to further enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑
• Both New blinds — Improves privacy and light control, enhancing both resale and rental value. ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances (if needed) — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Resale Bathroom fixtures (if needed) — Upgraded fixtures can increase the property's appeal to potential buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 10/100

Zoned Schools

High Florence High School F AZ #343/381 Nat'l #16,463/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Florence Unified School District (4437)
• NCES district ID: 0402920
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $54,426
• Composite: 18.31/100
• National rank: #8950
• State rank: #178 of 249 in AZ

C Composite livability gradescore 60/100

Livability — Florence

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #187
• US rank: #19483

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Florence, AZ
• County: Pinal County · 437,574 people
• City population: 38,671
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 38,671
• Household income: $79,000
• Rent vs Own: 13.6% rent · 86.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 2% of renters

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Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 9% Black 7% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 17% German/W. Germanic 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.75%
• Current HPI: 233.6644
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.27%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+12.3% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $336,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $282,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-07 Price Changed $281,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $336,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $279,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $282,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $285,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $291,490 Zillow
• 2026-01-25 Price Changed $289,490 Zillow
• 2026-01-16 Price Changed $287,490 Zillow
• 2025-12-25 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-12-25 Price Changed $289,990 Zillow
• 2025-05-16 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-05-15 Price Changed $325,490 Zillow
• 2025-05-14 Price Changed $336,490 Zillow
• 2025-04-28 Price Changed $334,990 Zillow
• 2025-03-28 Listed $299,990 Zillow