10216 Badger Run Ln

Tomball, TX 77354

$269,000D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,566 sqft · Built 2026 · Land · Active · 52 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,049/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,411
• Tax + insurance: −$207
• HOA: −$38
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$430
• Net cashflow: $-37/mo
• Annual: $-444/yr
• Cap rate: 6.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.59%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $75,320

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $269k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-37 ($-444/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $262k (2.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (23.8% below list).
• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($261k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $205k (23.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#155 in TX, #4,239 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Cedric C Smith (math 48% / reading 42%, grade D-, #1,133 of 4,322 statewide, top 27%, 724 students, 55% FRL); Bear Branch J H (math 44% / reading 46%, grade D, #479 of 1,662 statewide, top 29%, 1,076 students, 37% FRL); Magnolia H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,248 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 41% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1622 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 13350% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 0.3% rent growth), your $75k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 2.7% in Tomball — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.