10216 Badger Run Ln · Tomball, TX 77354

$269,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,566 sqft · Land · 52 Days on market

Built 2026 4,787 sqft lot $172/sqft · at area comps Est $264k · at est. $38/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +6.6/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful single-story “Cardinal II” plan by Smith Douglas Homes in Mill Creek Trails, offering 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, and soaring ceilings. The open kitchen and dining area boast 42” upper cabinets, a center island with bar seating, pendant lighting, and luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout main living and wet areas. The primary suite features a generous walk-in closet, dual-sink vanity, and oversized walk-in shower. Enjoy a covered rear patio for outdoor living and year-round efficiency with the Tech Shield radiant barrier. AVAILABLE NOW!

Key facts

• 4,787 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease considered
• HOA & community: Homeowners association managed by King Property Management; Annual association fee of $450; Community curbs and gutters

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Prewired for security; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Slab foundation; Composition roof; Year built 2026; Living area approximately 1,566
• Construction: Brick and cement siding construction
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio; Deck; Fenced backyard; Concrete road access; Subdivision location

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (First floor) — 15x14; Bedroom (First floor) — 10x10; Bedroom (First floor) — 10x10
• Flooring: Carpet; Plank; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (Gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Double vanity; Entrance foyer; High ceilings; Kitchen island; Kitchen/family room combo; Pantry; Tub with shower; Vanity; Window treatments; Kitchen/dining combo
• Laundry & utility: Pantry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $269k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-37 ($-444/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $262k (2.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (23.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $205k (23.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 2.7% in Tomball — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#155 in TX, #4,239 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Cedric C Smith (math 48% / reading 42%, grade D-, #1,133 of 4,322 statewide, top 27%, 724 students, 55% FRL); Bear Branch J H (math 44% / reading 46%, grade D, #479 of 1,662 statewide, top 29%, 1,076 students, 37% FRL); Magnolia H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,248 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 41% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1622 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 0.3% rent growth), your $75k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($261k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 13350% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Recommended offer $204,914 (23.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.59%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $263,959
• List price: $269,000
• Delta: 1.91%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.84×
• Total profit: $138,671
• Equity at exit: $242,337

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.31×
• Total profit: $400,262
• Equity at exit: $522,608

Cash invested: $75,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1622
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,049 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,411
• Tax from tax record: −$95 /mo · $1,141/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$38
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$430
• Net cashflow: $-37

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,096

Max offer price $262,459

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $115	-5% $39	+0% $-37	+5% $-113	+10% $-189
Rent	-10% $-199	-5% $-118	+0% $-37	+5% $44	+10% $125
Rate	-1.0pp $98	-0.5pp $31	base $-37	+0.5pp $-107	+1.0pp $-178

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,250
• Closing costs: $8,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9733 Grosbeak Ln Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1302	$1,798	$1.38	45d	1	0.52mi
9829 Glen Brook Ln Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	1637	$1,999	$1.22	4d	1	0.53mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $38 · $456/yr

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $269,000 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $269,000 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $269,000 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $269,000 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $269,000 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $269,000 Active 44 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $269,000 Active 40 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $269,000 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $269,000 Active 38 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $269,000 Active 35 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $269,000 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $269,000 Active 33 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $269,000 Active 32 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $269,000 Active 31 DOM
15. 2026-05-08
    listed $2,000
16. 2026-04-30
    listed $269,000 Active 997-char remark
17. 2026-01-29
    soldstatus Closed 564-char remark

    Show marketing remark (564 chars)

    Beautiful single-story “Cardinal II” plan by Smith Douglas Homes in Mill Creek Trails, offering 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, and soaring ceilings. The open kitchen and dining area boast 42” upper cabinets, a center island with bar seating, pendant lighting, and luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout main living and wet areas. The primary suite features a generous walk-in closet, dual-sink vanity, and oversized walk-in shower. Enjoy a covered rear patio for outdoor living and year-round efficiency with the Tech Shield radiant barrier. AVAILABLE NOW!

18. 2026-01-07
    status Pending 564-char remark

    Show marketing remark (564 chars)

    Beautiful single-story “Cardinal II” plan by Smith Douglas Homes in Mill Creek Trails, offering 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, and soaring ceilings. The open kitchen and dining area boast 42” upper cabinets, a center island with bar seating, pendant lighting, and luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout main living and wet areas. The primary suite features a generous walk-in closet, dual-sink vanity, and oversized walk-in shower. Enjoy a covered rear patio for outdoor living and year-round efficiency with the Tech Shield radiant barrier. AVAILABLE NOW!

19. 2025-12-29
    status Active 564-char remark

    Show marketing remark (564 chars)

    Beautiful single-story “Cardinal II” plan by Smith Douglas Homes in Mill Creek Trails, offering 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, and soaring ceilings. The open kitchen and dining area boast 42” upper cabinets, a center island with bar seating, pendant lighting, and luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout main living and wet areas. The primary suite features a generous walk-in closet, dual-sink vanity, and oversized walk-in shower. Enjoy a covered rear patio for outdoor living and year-round efficiency with the Tech Shield radiant barrier. AVAILABLE NOW!

20. 2025-08-22
    status Pending 564-char remark

    Show marketing remark (564 chars)

    Beautiful single-story “Cardinal II” plan by Smith Douglas Homes in Mill Creek Trails, offering 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, and soaring ceilings. The open kitchen and dining area boast 42” upper cabinets, a center island with bar seating, pendant lighting, and luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout main living and wet areas. The primary suite features a generous walk-in closet, dual-sink vanity, and oversized walk-in shower. Enjoy a covered rear patio for outdoor living and year-round efficiency with the Tech Shield radiant barrier. AVAILABLE NOW!

21. 2025-08-11
    listed $266,380 Active 564-char remark

    Show marketing remark (564 chars)

    Beautiful single-story “Cardinal II” plan by Smith Douglas Homes in Mill Creek Trails, offering 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, and soaring ceilings. The open kitchen and dining area boast 42” upper cabinets, a center island with bar seating, pendant lighting, and luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout main living and wet areas. The primary suite features a generous walk-in closet, dual-sink vanity, and oversized walk-in shower. Enjoy a covered rear patio for outdoor living and year-round efficiency with the Tech Shield radiant barrier. AVAILABLE NOW!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,141 · $95/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,923 · $410/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,782/yr (+$315/mo · 331.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,590
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,068
• − Property taxes: −$1,141
• − Insurance: −$1,345
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,967
• − Management: −$1,967
• − HOA: −$456
• − Depreciation: −$7,825
• Taxable loss: −$5,180
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,243
• After-tax cash flow: $799/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Tomball

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #155
• US rank: #4239

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-99.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Rental Removed $2,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-08 Listed for Rent $2,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $269,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-29 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2026-01-07 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-12-29 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-08-22 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-08-11 Listed $266,380 HARMLS

Property tax history

-30.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,141 · -30.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.