16959 Lake Park

Yorba Linda, CA 92886

$289,000C

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Built 1971 · Manufactured · Active · 107 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,493/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,516
• Tax + insurance: −$482
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$734
• Net cashflow: $762/mo
• Annual: $9,146/yr
• Cap rate: 9.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.30%
• DSCR: 1.50
• 1% rule: 1.21%
• Cash to close: $80,920

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $289k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $762 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $289k).
• It's been on market 107 days — a 9% lower offer ($263k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $263k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#105 in CA, #3,701 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, commute A-; Watch: health & safety D+, cost of living F.
• Placentia-Yorba Linda Unified (suburban): math 48% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #78 of 517 in CA (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lakeview Elementary (390 students, 20% FRL); Yorba Linda Middle (840 students, 33% FRL); El Dorado High (math 48% / reading 74%, grade C+, #201 of 1,170 statewide, top 17%, 2,034 students, 33% FRL) — zoned schools at 29% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 117 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 6,974 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,839 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Orange County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 2.1% in Yorba Linda — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 107 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.