16959 Lake Park · Yorba Linda, CA 92886

$289,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 107 Days on market

Built 1971 23 ac lot $201/sqft · 21% above area Est $239k · 21% over ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.5/30.0
• DSCR +9.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This Lovely Home is Ready to move-in to. Fresh paint and New wood laminate Flooring throughout. Dual pane windows covered nicely with Plantation Shutters. The Floor Plan gives you the space for privacy yet the Openness that is highly regarded today. The Living Room and Dining area have built-in features with the possibility of open space. The well designed Kitchen includes enough room for a eat-in Kitchen. Also has plenty of Cabinets and Counter Space to hold all of your Cooking needs. The Laundry area is attached plus extra storage and closets. Both Bedrooms are Specious. The Main in Suite Bedroom features a huge walk-in Closet. A ceiling Light Fan plus Plantation Shutters cover the window. The Guest Bedroom has a full wall Wardrobe Closet with Built-in Cabinet and drawers. The third Room could be used as a TV Room, a third Bedroom or a Office many possibilities. The nice Sun Room is located on the East side of the Home, which was used as a Hobby /Craft Room. The Attached covered Carport could accommodate up to 3 Vehicles and has a Large Storage Shed. (Large Price Reduction)

Key facts

• 23.31 acre lot
• 2 parking spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $289k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $762 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $289k).
• Recommended offer: $263k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 2.1% in Yorba Linda — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#105 in CA, #3,701 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, commute A-; Watch: health & safety D+, cost of living F.
• Placentia-Yorba Linda Unified (suburban): math 48% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #78 of 517 in CA (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lakeview Elementary (390 students, 20% FRL); Yorba Linda Middle (840 students, 33% FRL); El Dorado High (math 48% / reading 74%, grade C+, #201 of 1,170 statewide, top 17%, 2,034 students, 33% FRL) — zoned schools at 29% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 117 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 6,974 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,839 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Orange County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 107 days — a 9% lower offer ($263k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $262,990 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 107 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.30%
• DSCR: 1.50
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $238,913
• List price: $289,000
• Delta: 20.96%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16776 Lake Terrace Way #247	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	2mo	$335,000	$233	90
16950 Lake Park Way #7	0.02mi	2/2.0	1,472 (+2%)	7mo	$337,000	$229	89
16927 Lake Ridge Way	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	8mo	$255,000	$177	89
3761 Lake Grove Dr #55	0.04mi	2/2.0	1,368 (-5%)	2mo	$170,000	$124	88
16774 Lake Tree Dr #273	0.22mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	4mo	$344,000	$239	87
16959 Lake Knoll Ln #109	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,368 (-5%)	3mo	$215,000	$157	86
3744 Lake Grove Dr #21	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	1mo	$205,000	$153	85
3767 Lake Glen Dr #145	0.17mi	2/2.0	1,368 (-5%)	2mo	$220,000	$161	82
16901 Lake Pleasant Ln #231	0.17mi	2/2.0	1,392 (-3%)	6mo	$190,000	$136	82
3731 Lake Side Dr	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,358 (-6%)	7mo	$269,000	$198	79
3708 Lake Crest Dr	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,536 (+7%)	6mo	$284,000	$185	79
3678 Lake Crest Dr #41	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	4mo	$355,000	$264	79

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.26% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-815
• Equity at exit: $43,091

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.64×
• Total profit: $51,576
• Equity at exit: $24,987

Cash invested: $80,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92886

• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 117
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,493 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,516
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$361 /mo · $4,335/yr
• Insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$734
• Net cashflow: $762

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,528

Max offer price $289,000

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $962	-5% $862	+0% $762	+5% $662	+10% $562
Rent	-10% $486	-5% $624	+0% $762	+5% $900	+10% $1,038
Rate	-1.0pp $908	-0.5pp $836	base $762	+0.5pp $687	+1.0pp $611

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,250
• Closing costs: $8,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
408 Sevilla Dr Brea, CA	2.0	2.5	1534	$3,800	$2.48	45d	1	0.74mi
17564 Orange Dr Yorba Linda, CA	2.0	2.0	1015	$2,750	$2.71	45d	1	1.15mi
17568 Orange Dr Yorba Linda, CA	2.0	1.5	1050	$2,690	$2.56	14d	1	1.16mi
1441 Prospect Ave Unit B Placentia, CA	2.0	2.0	1200	$3,150	$2.62	18d	1	1.23mi
1010 E Yorba Linda Blvd Placentia, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	780	$2,100	$2.69	8d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $289,000 Active 107 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $289,000 Active 104 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $289,000 Active 103 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $289,000 Active 102 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $289,000 Active 101 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $289,000 Active 99 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $289,000 Active 98 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $289,000 Active 95 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $289,000 Active 94 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $289,000 Active 93 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $289,000 Active 90 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $289,000 Active 89 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $289,000 Active 88 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $289,000 Active 87 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $289,000 Active 86 DOM
16. 2026-05-07
    price $289,000 1092-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1092 chars)

    This Lovely Home is Ready to move-in to. Fresh paint and New wood laminate Flooring throughout. Dual pane windows covered nicely with Plantation Shutters. The Floor Plan gives you the space for privacy yet the Openness that is highly regarded today. The Living Room and Dining area have built-in features with the possibility of open space. The well designed Kitchen includes enough room for a eat-in Kitchen. Also has plenty of Cabinets and Counter Space to hold all of your Cooking needs. The Laundry area is attached plus extra storage and closets. Both Bedrooms are Specious. The Main in Suite Bedroom features a huge walk-in Closet. A ceiling Light Fan plus Plantation Shutters cover the window. The Guest Bedroom has a full wall Wardrobe Closet with Built-in Cabinet and drawers. The third Room could be used as a TV Room, a third Bedroom or a Office many possibilities. The nice Sun Room is located on the East side of the Home, which was used as a Hobby /Craft Room. The Attached covered Carport could accommodate up to 3 Vehicles and has a Large Storage Shed. (Large Price Reduction)

17. 2026-03-06
    listed $320,000 Active 1092-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1092 chars)

    This Lovely Home is Ready to move-in to. Fresh paint and New wood laminate Flooring throughout. Dual pane windows covered nicely with Plantation Shutters. The Floor Plan gives you the space for privacy yet the Openness that is highly regarded today. The Living Room and Dining area have built-in features with the possibility of open space. The well designed Kitchen includes enough room for a eat-in Kitchen. Also has plenty of Cabinets and Counter Space to hold all of your Cooking needs. The Laundry area is attached plus extra storage and closets. Both Bedrooms are Specious. The Main in Suite Bedroom features a huge walk-in Closet. A ceiling Light Fan plus Plantation Shutters cover the window. The Guest Bedroom has a full wall Wardrobe Closet with Built-in Cabinet and drawers. The third Room could be used as a TV Room, a third Bedroom or a Office many possibilities. The nice Sun Room is located on the East side of the Home, which was used as a Hobby /Craft Room. The Attached covered Carport could accommodate up to 3 Vehicles and has a Large Storage Shed. (Large Price Reduction)

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,915
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,188
• − Property taxes: −$4,335
• − Insurance: −$1,445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,353
• − Management: −$3,353
• − Depreciation: −$8,407
• Taxable income: $4,833
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,160
• After-tax cash flow: $7,986/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Placentia-Yorba Linda Unified
• NCES district ID: 0630660
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $87,455
• Composite: 52.1/100
• National rank: #1622
• State rank: #78 of 517 in CA

Livability — Yorba Linda

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #105
• US rank: #3701

Category grades

Amenities C Commute A- Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Yorba Linda, CA
• County: Orange County · 3,096,323 people
• City population: 69,429
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• Population (ZIP): 49,704
• Household income: $153,397
• Rent vs Own: 16.9% rent · 83.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 861.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,477,456 people
• By 2030: 3,613,117 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 3,835,945 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 3,968,736 · +14.1%
• By 2075: 4,097,053 · +17.8%
• By 2100: 3,903,633 · +12.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Asian 25% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 22% · China, South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Chinese 8% Spanish 7% Korean 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.7% · R 47.1% · Other 3.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.2pp toward D · 2008: -2.6pp · 2024: 2.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+2.6 2020: D+9.0 2016: D+7.7 2012: R+8.3 2008: R+2.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -880.71%
• Current HPI: 375.5231
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.26%
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-9.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $289,000 CRMLS
• 2026-03-06 Listed $320,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

-4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $110 · +0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.