393 Kimbrough Ln

Hudson, TX 75969

$194,000C

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,260 sqft · Built 2003 · SingleFamily · Active · 117 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,688/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,017
• Tax + insurance: −$247
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$354
• Net cashflow: $68/mo
• Annual: $822/yr
• Cap rate: 6.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.51%
• DSCR: 1.07
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $54,320

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $194k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $68 ($822/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $169k (13.0% below list).
• It's been on market 117 days — a 9% lower offer ($177k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $169k (13.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $859 of equity ($1k loan paydown + $-482 appreciation (-0.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#791 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Central ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #294 of 826 in TX (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 31 active listings in the ZIP; 120 units permitted in Angelina County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.0% in Hudson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 117 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.