393 Kimbrough Ln · Hudson, TX 75969

$194,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,260 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 117 Days on market

Built 2003 0.65 ac lot $154/sqft · 39% below area Est $319k · 39% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +4.9/10.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 3 bedroom, 2 bath home located in Central ISD offers comfort, functionality, and plenty of space. NEW ROOF in January 2026!! Step inside to a bright, inviting living area with an open flow into the kitchen and dining space that is perfect for everyday living or entertaining. The split floor plan provides privacy for the primary suite. There is a brand new HVAC system complete with UV light, offering improved air quality and energy efficiency. A dedicated laundry room adds convenience and the covered carport makes coming and going easy in any weather. Outside, enjoy the spacious yard surrounded by mature trees along with a huge storage building. If you're looking for a move in ready home in a quiet setting, this one checks all the boxes. Schedule your private showing today!

Key facts

• Spacious yard
• Covered carport
• New roof

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• BRAND NEW HVAC SYSTEM
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM
• COVERED CARPORT
• SPACIOUS YARD
• HUGE STORAGE BUILDING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $194k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $68 ($822/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $169k (13.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $169k (13.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.0% in Hudson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#791 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Central ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #294 of 826 in TX (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 31 active listings in the ZIP; 120 units permitted in Angelina County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $859 of equity ($1k loan paydown + $-482 appreciation (-0.2% local appreciation)).

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 117 days — a 9% lower offer ($177k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $168,761 (13.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 117 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.51%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $319,000
• List price: $194,000
• Delta: -39.18%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.25% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-3,587
• Equity at exit: $53,935

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.47×
• Total profit: $25,343
• Equity at exit: $62,950

Cash invested: $54,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75969

• Home prices YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 31
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,688 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,017
• Tax from tax record: −$167 /mo · $1,998/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$354
• Net cashflow: $68

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,601

Max offer price $194,000

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,500
• Closing costs: $5,820
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $194,000 Active 117 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $194,000 Active 116 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $194,000 Active 115 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $194,000 Active 114 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $194,000 Active 113 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $194,000 Active 111 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $194,000 Active 110 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $194,000 Active 108 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $194,000 Active 107 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $194,000 Active 106 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $194,000 Active 105 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $194,000 Active 102 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $194,000 Active 101 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $194,000 Active 100 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $194,000 Active 99 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $194,000 Active 98 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $194,000 Active 97 DOM
18. 2026-01-07
    listed $194,000 Active 788-char remark

    Show marketing remark (788 chars)

    This 3 bedroom, 2 bath home located in Central ISD offers comfort, functionality, and plenty of space. NEW ROOF in January 2026!! Step inside to a bright, inviting living area with an open flow into the kitchen and dining space that is perfect for everyday living or entertaining. The split floor plan provides privacy for the primary suite. There is a brand new HVAC system complete with UV light, offering improved air quality and energy efficiency. A dedicated laundry room adds convenience and the covered carport makes coming and going easy in any weather. Outside, enjoy the spacious yard surrounded by mature trees along with a huge storage building. If you're looking for a move in ready home in a quiet setting, this one checks all the boxes. Schedule your private showing today!

19. 2003-08-13
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,998 · $167/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,550 · $296/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,552/yr (+$129/mo · 77.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,251
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,867
• − Property taxes: −$1,998
• − Insurance: −$970
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,620
• − Management: −$1,620
• − Depreciation: −$5,644
• Taxable loss: −$2,468
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$592
• After-tax cash flow: $1,414/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Central ISD
• NCES district ID: 4813500
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $52,994
• Composite: 37.26/100
• National rank: #4458
• State rank: #294 of 826 in TX

Livability — Hudson

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #791
• US rank: #14441

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,606

Population outlook (Angelina County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 90,174 people
• By 2030: 90,697 · +0.6%
• By 2040: 91,291 · +1.2%
• By 2050: 91,168 · +1.1%
• By 2075: 88,961 · -1.3%
• By 2100: 80,590 · -10.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 5% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Angelina

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.0) · D 23.7% · R 75.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.0pp toward R · 2008: -35.0pp · 2024: -52.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.0 2020: R+46.1 2016: R+47.3 2012: R+43.9 2008: R+35.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.25%
• Current HPI: 235.2344
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-07 Listed $194,000 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2003-08-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,998 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.