3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
4,000 sqft ·
Built 1996
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 27 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,305/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$445
Tax + insurance
−$355
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$274
Net cashflow
$231/mo
Annual
$2,766/yr
Cap rate
10.49%
Cash-on-cash
14.99%
DSCR
1.67
1% rule
1.54%
Cash to close
$23,772
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $231 ($3k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $84k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $587 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
Van Vleck ISD (town): math 36% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #492 of 826 in TX (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Van Vleck El (math 42% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,545 of 4,322 statewide, top 38%, 303 students, 58% FRL); Van Vleck Jr H S (math 29% / reading 38%, grade F, #911 of 1,662 statewide, top 56%, 243 students, 59% FRL); Van Vleck H S (math 57% / reading 42%, grade D, #509 of 1,632 statewide, top 34%, 355 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools at 55% FRL track the district average.
Watch-outs: property tax is 3.6% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 626 active listings in the ZIP; 153 units permitted in Matagorda County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.3% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-HJ19SB13BP1BXH
· Data 14 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29