1659 Carmen Rd

Barker, NY 14012

$199,900D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,560 sqft · Built 1830 · SingleFamily · Pending · 39 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,197/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax + insurance: −$328
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$251
• Net cashflow: $-431/mo
• Annual: $-5,170/yr
• Cap rate: 3.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.24%
• DSCR: 0.59
• 1% rule: 0.60%
• Cash to close: $55,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-431 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $124k (38.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $120k (40.1% below list).
• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $120k (40.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,001 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Barker Central School District (rural): math 60% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #204 of 590 in NY (top 35%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Pratt Elementary School (math 57% / reading 57%, grade C+, #842 of 2,108 statewide, top 43%, 351 students, 43% FRL); Barker Junior/Senior High School (math 67% / reading 72%, grade B, #715 of 1,100 statewide, top 67%, 292 students, 39% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1830 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 20 active listings in the ZIP; 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1830 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.