1659 Carmen Rd · Barker, NY 14012

$199,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,560 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 39 Days on market

Built 1830 0.60 ac lot $128/sqft · 35% below area Est $307k · 35% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +5.4/30.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

ENJOY COUNTRY LIVING IN NORTHERN NIAGARA COUNTY, TOWN OF SOMERSET. 1830 COUNTRY SCHOOLHOUSE OFFERS 3 BEDROOMS (POSSIBLE 4TH), LARGE EAT IN COUNTRY KITCHEN WITH WOODSTOVE & ORIGINAL WOOD FLOORS, 2 SPACIOUS BEDROOMS DOWN AND 3RD BEDROOM (POSS 4TH) ON FLOOR 2. FULL BATH WITH RECENT UPDATES AND NEW DRYWALL. COMFORTABLE LIVING AREA W/ SMALL DINING ROOM TOO. OUTSIDE OFFERS SPACIOUS LOT WHICH INCLUDES THE ADJACENT RAILROAD BED (FORMER HOJACK LINE) TOTALING 3.08 ACRES. ALSO, DETACHED 2 CAR GARAGE AND SEPARATE 1 CAR GARAGE/WORKSHOP. CURRENT OWNERS ARE RETIRING CLOSER TO FAMILY AND HAVE PROUDLY CARED FOR THIS PROPERTY SINCE 1968! BARKER SCHOOLS.

Key facts

• Recent updates
• Original wood floors
• Spacious lot

Tags

• LARGE EAT IN COUNTRY KITCHEN
• ORIGINAL WOOD FLOORS
• RECENT UPDATES
• SPACIOUS LOT
• DETACHED 2 CAR GARAGE
• SEPARATE 1 CAR GARAGE WORKSHOP

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot is approximately 3.08 acres with irregular/agricultural characteristics; lot dimensions about 265 x 1313

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (2 car)
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Public water connected; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-story home; Resale property
• Construction: Brick and composite siding; Asphalt/architectural/metal/shingle roof; Block foundation; Partial basement with walk-out access and sump pump
• Exterior features: Gravel driveway; Covered porch; Outhouse; Shed(s); Exterior storage; Propane tank (leased)

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing range; Gas oven; Gas range; Oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Two main-level bedrooms; Bedroom on main level
• Flooring: Hardwood; Tile; Vinyl; Varies
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Baseboard heating; Hot water heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Country kitchen; Natural woodwork; Accessible bedroom; Thermal windows
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in basement; Propane water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-431 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $124k (38.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $120k (40.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $120k (40.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,001 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Barker Central School District (rural): math 60% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #204 of 590 in NY (top 35%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Pratt Elementary School (math 57% / reading 57%, grade C+, #842 of 2,108 statewide, top 43%, 351 students, 43% FRL); Barker Junior/Senior High School (math 67% / reading 72%, grade B, #715 of 1,100 statewide, top 67%, 292 students, 39% FRL).
• Market conditions: 20 active listings in the ZIP; 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1830 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $119,690 (40.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1830 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.60% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.24%
• DSCR: 0.59
• GRM: 13.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $306,886
• List price: $199,900
• Delta: -34.86%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9641 Haight Rd	0.66mi	3/1.5	1,562 (+0%)	7mo	$285,000	$182	61
1590 Carmen Rd	0.55mi	3/1.0	1,500 (-4%)	8mo	$208,000	$139	61
9257 Coleman Rd	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,512 (-3%)	19mo	$270,000	$179	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.46×
• Total profit: $81,446
• Equity at exit: $180,086

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.67×
• Total profit: $261,453
• Equity at exit: $388,362

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14012

• Home prices YoY: 14.8%
• Active inventory: 20
• Price-to-rent: 13.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,197 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$245 /mo · $2,938/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$251
• Net cashflow: $-431

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,742

Max offer price $123,792

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-318	-5% $-374	+0% $-431	+5% $-487	+10% $-544
Rent	-10% $-525	-5% $-478	+0% $-431	+5% $-384	+10% $-336
Rate	-1.0pp $-330	-0.5pp $-380	base $-431	+0.5pp $-483	+1.0pp $-535

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   statusdays on market $199,900 Pending 39 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,900 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,900 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,900 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,900 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,900 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,900 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,900 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,900 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,900 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,900 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,900 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,900 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-12
    listed $199,900 Active 649-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,938 · $245/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,158 · $263/mo
• Expected delta: +$220/yr (+$18/mo · 7.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,363
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$2,938
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,149
• − Management: −$1,149
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$8,885
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,132
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,038/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Barker Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3603960
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $53,339
• Composite: 53.45/100
• National rank: #1463
• State rank: #204 of 590 in NY

Livability — Barker

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1001
• US rank: #19513

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,944

Population outlook (Niagara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 204,149 people
• By 2030: 197,900 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 182,239 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 165,198 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 129,416 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 96,222 · -52.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Black 8% Two or more races 7% Native American 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Romanian 3% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Niagara

• 2024 margin: R (+14.9) · D 42.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 1.0pp · 2024: -14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.9 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+0.6 2008: D+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 40.61%
• Current HPI: 315.6587
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $199,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+8.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,938 · -2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.