11316 N Chesapeake Ln

Peoria, IL 61525

$469,000F

5 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,235 sqft · Built 2016 · SingleFamily · Pending · 1 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,724/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,459
• Tax + insurance: −$1,113
• HOA: −$10
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$362
• Net cashflow: $-2,220/mo
• Annual: $-26,645/yr
• Cap rate: 0.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -20.29%
• DSCR: 0.10
• 1% rule: 0.37%
• Cash to close: $131,320

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $469k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-27k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $196k (58.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $172k (63.2% below list).
• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $172k (63.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#270 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F.
• Dunlap CUSD 323 (rural): math 57% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #28 of 620 in IL (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Hickory Grove Elementary School (math 65% / reading 68%, grade B+, #36 of 2,056 statewide, top 2%, 801 students, 0% FRL); Dunlap Middle School (math 62% / reading 73%, grade A-, #7 of 665 statewide, top 1%, 544 students, 0% FRL); Dunlap High School (math 60% / reading 53%, grade C, #24 of 693 statewide, top 3%, 1,375 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: 76 active listings in the ZIP; 73 units permitted in Peoria County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Peoria County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Cap rate 0.6% vs local median 5.6% in Peoria — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.