11316 N Chesapeake Ln · Peoria, IL 61525

$469,000

5 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,235 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 2016 9,583 sqft lot $210/sqft · 21% above area Est $499k · 6% under $10/mo HOA · 1% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.2/15.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +0.0/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this stunning 5-bedroom, 3.5-bath, 2-story cul-de-sac home in the highly sought-after Dunlap School District (HGES). A charming covered front porch and well-maintained yard create an inviting first impression. Inside, the main level features hardwood flooring throughout and a bright, open-concept layout connecting the great room, dining area, and kitchen. Expansive windows and sliding glass doors fill the space with natural light, while a cozy brick fireplace adds warmth, perfect for everyday living and entertaining. A versatile flex room offers the ideal space for a home office, formal dining, or additional living area. The kitchen is thoughtfully designed with stainless steel a

Key facts

• 9,583 sq ft lot
• 3 garage spots
• Built 2016

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: Copper Creek
• HOA & community: Association fee: $125 (period not specified)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached parking garage; 3-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Ejector pump; Public power
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two levels; Built in 2016; Shingle roof; Residential zoning
• Construction: Shingle roof; Built in 2016
• Exterior features: Fenced yard; Cul-de-sac lot; Level lot; Paved road access; Deck

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms; Upper-level primary and additional upper-level bedrooms; Basement bedroom included; Egress windows in bedrooms
• Flooring: Hardwood in main living and dining areas; Carpet in upper-level and basement bedrooms and recreation room; Tile in laundry and mudroom
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air; Forced air heating; Gas water heater
• Interior features: Cable available; Solid surface counters; Ceiling fans; Soaking tub; Finished full basement; Family room gas log fireplace (1 total)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry room (upper level); Water softener (owned); Ejector pump

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $469k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-27k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $196k (58.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $172k (63.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $172k (63.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 0.6% vs local median 5.6% in Peoria — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#270 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F.
• Dunlap CUSD 323 (rural): math 57% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #28 of 620 in IL (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Hickory Grove Elementary School (math 65% / reading 68%, grade B+, #36 of 2,056 statewide, top 2%, 801 students, 0% FRL); Dunlap Middle School (math 62% / reading 73%, grade A-, #7 of 665 statewide, top 1%, 544 students, 0% FRL); Dunlap High School (math 60% / reading 53%, grade C, #24 of 693 statewide, top 3%, 1,375 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: 76 active listings in the ZIP; 73 units permitted in Peoria County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Peoria County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $172,387 (63.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.37% ✗
• Cap rate: 0.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -20.29%
• DSCR: 0.10
• GRM: 22.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $499,153
• List price: $469,000
• Delta: -6.04%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11414 N Joseph St	0.07mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,429 (+9%)	11mo	$445,000	$183	69
2407 W Miners Dr	0.74mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,216 (-1%)	6mo	$293,500	$132	52
11315 N Granite St	0.43mi	5/3.0	2,564 (+15%)	11mo	$485,000	$189	45
2802 W Arden Way	0.45mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,000 (-10%)	11mo	$386,150	$193	44
2411 W Jubilee Ln	0.74mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,324 (+4%)	12mo	$265,000	$114	42
10900 N Woodale Dr	0.45mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,919 (-14%)	7mo	$445,900	$232	39
10900 N Woodale Dr	0.46mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,919 (-14%)	7mo	$445,900	$232	38
2601 W Sesame St	0.57mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,539 (+14%)	7mo	$410,000	$161	34
10920 N Granite St	0.55mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,424 (+8%)	22mo	$387,200	$160	33
10856 N Glenfield Dr	0.61mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,416 (+8%)	23mo	$369,000	$153	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -58.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.65×
• Total profit: $-217,184
• Equity at exit: $69,929

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -1.82×
• Total profit: $-370,266
• Equity at exit: $40,551

Cash invested: $131,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61525

• Home prices YoY: -28.7%
• Active inventory: 76
• Price-to-rent: 22.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,724 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,459
• Tax from tax record: −$917 /mo · $11,009/yr
• Insurance: −$195
• HOA: −$10
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$362
• Net cashflow: $-2,220

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,535

Max offer price $195,616

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,955	-5% $-2,088	+0% $-2,220	+5% $-2,353	+10% $-2,486
Rent	-10% $-2,357	-5% $-2,289	+0% $-2,220	+5% $-2,152	+10% $-2,084
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,984	-0.5pp $-2,101	base $-2,220	+0.5pp $-2,342	+1.0pp $-2,466

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $117,250
• Closing costs: $14,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $10 · $120/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-27
   historical $469,000 1469-char remark
2. 2021-08-06
   historical
3. 2021-08-06
   historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $11,009 · $917/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $11,009 · $917/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,686
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,271
• − Property taxes: −$11,009
• − Insurance: −$2,345
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,655
• − Management: −$1,655
• − HOA: −$120
• − Depreciation: −$13,644
• Taxable loss: −$36,012
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$8,643
• After-tax cash flow: $-18,002/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dunlap CUSD 323
• NCES district ID: 1712700
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $83,478
• Composite: 53.44/100
• National rank: #1466
• State rank: #28 of 620 in IL

Livability — Peoria

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #270
• US rank: #5096

Category grades

Amenities B Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Peoria, IL
• City population: 114,670
• Population (ZIP): 12,066

Population outlook (Peoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 183,007 people
• By 2030: 179,643 · -1.8%
• By 2040: 171,782 · -6.1%
• By 2050: 163,508 · -10.7%
• By 2075: 140,178 · -23.4%
• By 2100: 114,493 · -37.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Asian 20% Two or more races 7% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Scandinavian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · China, Vietnam, Canada
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Other Indo-European 8% Chinese 4% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Peoria

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.5% · R 46.9% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.2pp toward R · 2008: 13.9pp · 2024: 4.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+4.7 2020: D+6.3 2016: D+2.8 2012: D+4.4 2008: D+13.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.88%
• Current HPI: 173.7861
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Pending — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-21 Listed $469,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-27 Coming Soon $469,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-06 Listing Removed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-06 Listing Removed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $11,009 · +4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.