2863 Shadow Lawn

Hopkins Park, IL 60954

$43,500B-

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,250 sqft · Built 1979 · Other · Active · 224 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,216/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$228
• Tax + insurance: −$72
• HOA: −$45
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$255
• Net cashflow: $615/mo
• Annual: $7,379/yr
• Cap rate: 23.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 60.59%
• DSCR: 3.70
• 1% rule: 2.80%
• Cash to close: $12,180

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $44k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $615 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $44k).
• It's been on market 224 days — a 12% lower offer ($38k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $38k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $301 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,327 in IL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Momence CUSD 1 (town): math 11% / reading 13% proficiency, ranked #544 of 620 in IL (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Je-Neir Elem School (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,371 of 2,056 statewide, top 68%, 329 students, 0% FRL); Momence Jr High School (math 14% / reading 11%, grade F, #545 of 665 statewide, top 83%, 344 students, 0% FRL); Momence High School (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #479 of 693 statewide, top 71%, 343 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 59% district-wide (59 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 24 active listings in the ZIP; 145 units permitted in Kankakee County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kankakee County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 224 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.