2863 Shadow Lawn · Hopkins Park, IL 60954

$43,500

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,250 sqft · Other · 224 Days on market

Built 1979 0.33 ac lot $35/sqft · 69% below area $45/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 42% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Calling all investors! This 4-bedroom, 1-bath home in the Shadow Lawn community is full of potential and ready for your vision. The large detached garage offers endless possibilities-use it as extra living space, a workshop, office, or even the ultimate party house. Flip it and sell it, make it your vacation getaway, or enjoy everyday life that feels like a retreat. Just a short walk to the Kankakee River, with access to beaches, a boat launch, walking trails, and picnic areas. Home being sold as-is.

Key facts

• Detached garage
• Walking trails
• Picnic areas

Tags

• DETACHED GARAGE
• KANKAKEE RIVER ACCESS
• WALKING TRAILS
• PICNIC AREAS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $44k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $615 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $44k).
• Recommended offer: $38k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,327 in IL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Momence CUSD 1 (town): math 11% / reading 13% proficiency, ranked #544 of 620 in IL (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Je-Neir Elem School (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,371 of 2,056 statewide, top 68%, 329 students, 0% FRL); Momence Jr High School (math 14% / reading 11%, grade F, #545 of 665 statewide, top 83%, 344 students, 0% FRL); Momence High School (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #479 of 693 statewide, top 71%, 343 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 59% district-wide (59 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 24 active listings in the ZIP; 145 units permitted in Kankakee County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $301 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kankakee County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 224 days — a 12% lower offer ($38k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $38,280 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 224 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.80% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 60.59%
• DSCR: 3.70
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $139,077
• List price: $43,500
• Delta: -68.72%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 59.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.64×
• Total profit: $32,164
• Equity at exit: $6,486

10-year hold

• IRR: 64.2%
• Equity multiple: 7.46×
• Total profit: $78,628
• Equity at exit: $3,761

Cash invested: $12,180 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 60954

• Home prices YoY: -15.6%
• Active inventory: 24
• Price-to-rent: 3.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,216 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$228
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$54 /mo · $652/yr
• Insurance: −$18
• HOA: −$45
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$255
• Net cashflow: $615

Break-even live

Break-even rent $437

Max offer price $43,500

Occupancy floor 44%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $645	-5% $630	+0% $615	+5% $600	+10% $585
Rent	-10% $519	-5% $567	+0% $615	+5% $663	+10% $711
Rate	-1.0pp $637	-0.5pp $626	base $615	+0.5pp $604	+1.0pp $592

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,875
• Closing costs: $1,305
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $45 · $540/yr

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $43,500 Active 224 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   price $43,500 Active 223 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $46,200 Active 223 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $46,200 Active 222 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $46,200 Active 221 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $46,200 Active 220 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $46,200 Active 218 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $46,200 Active 217 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $46,200 Active 215 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $46,200 Active 214 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $46,200 Active 213 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    statusdays on market $46,200 Active 212 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $46,200 Contingent - Continue to Show 208 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $46,200 Contingent - Continue to Show 207 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $46,200 Contingent - Continue to Show 206 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $46,200 Contingent - Continue to Show 205 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $46,200 Contingent - Continue to Show 204 DOM
18. 2026-05-04
    price $46,200 508-char remark

    Show marketing remark (508 chars)

    Calling all investors! This 4-bedroom, 1-bath home in the Shadow Lawn community is full of potential and ready for your vision. The large detached garage offers endless possibilities-use it as extra living space, a workshop, office, or even the ultimate party house. Flip it and sell it, make it your vacation getaway, or enjoy everyday life that feels like a retreat. Just a short walk to the Kankakee River, with access to beaches, a boat launch, walking trails, and picnic areas. Home being sold as-is.

19. 2026-04-10
    price $49,900 508-char remark

    Show marketing remark (508 chars)

    Calling all investors! This 4-bedroom, 1-bath home in the Shadow Lawn community is full of potential and ready for your vision. The large detached garage offers endless possibilities-use it as extra living space, a workshop, office, or even the ultimate party house. Flip it and sell it, make it your vacation getaway, or enjoy everyday life that feels like a retreat. Just a short walk to the Kankakee River, with access to beaches, a boat launch, walking trails, and picnic areas. Home being sold as-is.

20. 2026-03-09
    price $55,000 508-char remark

    Show marketing remark (508 chars)

    Calling all investors! This 4-bedroom, 1-bath home in the Shadow Lawn community is full of potential and ready for your vision. The large detached garage offers endless possibilities-use it as extra living space, a workshop, office, or even the ultimate party house. Flip it and sell it, make it your vacation getaway, or enjoy everyday life that feels like a retreat. Just a short walk to the Kankakee River, with access to beaches, a boat launch, walking trails, and picnic areas. Home being sold as-is.

21. 2026-02-10
    price $59,900 508-char remark

    Show marketing remark (508 chars)

    Calling all investors! This 4-bedroom, 1-bath home in the Shadow Lawn community is full of potential and ready for your vision. The large detached garage offers endless possibilities-use it as extra living space, a workshop, office, or even the ultimate party house. Flip it and sell it, make it your vacation getaway, or enjoy everyday life that feels like a retreat. Just a short walk to the Kankakee River, with access to beaches, a boat launch, walking trails, and picnic areas. Home being sold as-is.

22. 2025-12-22
    price $69,900 508-char remark

    Show marketing remark (508 chars)

    Calling all investors! This 4-bedroom, 1-bath home in the Shadow Lawn community is full of potential and ready for your vision. The large detached garage offers endless possibilities-use it as extra living space, a workshop, office, or even the ultimate party house. Flip it and sell it, make it your vacation getaway, or enjoy everyday life that feels like a retreat. Just a short walk to the Kankakee River, with access to beaches, a boat launch, walking trails, and picnic areas. Home being sold as-is.

23. 2025-11-29
    price $74,900 508-char remark

    Show marketing remark (508 chars)

    Calling all investors! This 4-bedroom, 1-bath home in the Shadow Lawn community is full of potential and ready for your vision. The large detached garage offers endless possibilities-use it as extra living space, a workshop, office, or even the ultimate party house. Flip it and sell it, make it your vacation getaway, or enjoy everyday life that feels like a retreat. Just a short walk to the Kankakee River, with access to beaches, a boat launch, walking trails, and picnic areas. Home being sold as-is.

24. 2025-11-07
    listed $79,900 Active 508-char remark

    Show marketing remark (508 chars)

    Calling all investors! This 4-bedroom, 1-bath home in the Shadow Lawn community is full of potential and ready for your vision. The large detached garage offers endless possibilities-use it as extra living space, a workshop, office, or even the ultimate party house. Flip it and sell it, make it your vacation getaway, or enjoy everyday life that feels like a retreat. Just a short walk to the Kankakee River, with access to beaches, a boat launch, walking trails, and picnic areas. Home being sold as-is.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,591
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,437
• − Property taxes: −$652
• − Insurance: −$218
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,167
• − Management: −$1,167
• − HOA: −$540
• − Depreciation: −$1,265
• Taxable income: $7,144
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,715
• After-tax cash flow: $5,665/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Momence CUSD 1
• NCES district ID: 1726430
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 13% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $50,724
• Composite: 11.34/100
• National rank: #9711
• State rank: #544 of 620 in IL

Livability — Hopkins Park

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #1327
• US rank: #25329

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,586

Population outlook (Kankakee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,479 people
• By 2030: 101,792 · -3.5%
• By 2040: 93,479 · -11.4%
• By 2050: 85,061 · -19.4%
• By 2075: 67,314 · -36.2%
• By 2100: 52,439 · -50.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 6% Black 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 6% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kankakee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 38.7% · R 59.5% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.4pp toward R · 2008: 4.6pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+16.5 2016: R+13.3 2012: R+3.4 2008: D+4.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -34.19%
• Current HPI: 185.1118
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

-42.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $46,200 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $49,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $55,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-10 Price Changed $59,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-22 Price Changed $69,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-29 Price Changed $74,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-07 Listed $79,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+7.6%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,445 · +25.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.