1256 NE 149th St

Golden Glades, FL 33161

$450,000D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,175 sqft · Built 1952 · SingleFamily · Pending · 814 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,653/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,360
• Tax + insurance: −$1,033
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$767
• Net cashflow: $-507/mo
• Annual: $-6,086/yr
• Cap rate: 6.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.77%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $126,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $450k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-507 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $360k (19.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $365k (18.8% below list).
• It's been on market 814 days — a 12% lower offer ($396k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $360k (19.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#281 in FL, #4,513 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing B+, health & safety B+; Watch: employment D, amenities F.
• Miami-Dade (suburban): math 45% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #40 of 73 in FL (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: North Miami Elementary School (math 38% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,609 of 2,144 statewide, top 77%, 423 students, 71% FRL); North Miami Middle School (math 25% / reading 31%, grade F, #486 of 571 statewide, top 86%, 807 students, 71% FRL); North Miami Beach Senior High (math 13% / reading 24%, grade F, #568 of 667 statewide, top 85%, 1,149 students, 66% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 28% at this address vs 50% district-wide (-22 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Miami-Dade average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 340 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 10,051 units permitted in Miami-Dade County in 2024 (7,758 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Miami-Dade County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.6% in Golden Glades — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,653/mo this rent would consume 75% of the median local household income ($58k/yr) (locally 3226% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 814 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.