179 Docare Rd

Vista Center, NJ 08527

$625,000D

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,096 sqft · Built 1986 · SingleFamily · Pending · 53 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,354/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,278
• Tax + insurance: −$951
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,124
• Net cashflow: $1/mo
• Annual: $13/yr
• Cap rate: 6.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.01%
• DSCR: 1.00
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $175,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $625k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1 ($13/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $535k (14.3% below list).
• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($606k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $535k (14.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $19k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#507 in NJ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Jackson Township School District (suburban): math 26% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #228 of 472 in NJ (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Elms Elementary School (math 32% / reading 44%, grade F, #523 of 1,303 statewide, top 40%, 658 students, 20% FRL); Carl W. Goetz Middle School (math 32% / reading 54%, grade D-, #167 of 431 statewide, top 41%, 989 students, 22% FRL); Jackson Memorial High School (math 28% / reading 57%, grade F, #166 of 399 statewide, top 42%, 1,499 students, 16% FRL) — zoned schools at 19% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 572 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $120k; list at $625k implies a 421% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 55% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.3% in Vista Center — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $5,354/mo this rent would consume 56% of the median local household income ($115k/yr) (locally 1031% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.