179 Docare Rd · Vista Center, NJ 08527

$625,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,096 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 53 Days on market

Built 1986 0.42 ac lot $298/sqft · at area comps Est $657k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.3/30.0
• ARV discount +9.7/15.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

First time offered, this beautifully maintained, north facing home with 4-bedrooms, 2.5-baths sits on a private 0.42-acre lot and has been thoughtfully updated over time. Upon entry, a formal living room welcomes you and transitions effortlessly into the dining room, creating an ideal space for entertaining. A warm and inviting interior showcases hardwood flooring, custom crown molding, and abundant natural light pouring through Andersen windows. The renovated kitchen is a standout, featuring granite countertops, a natural gas cooktop, built-in double oven, and an abundance of cabinetry for storage. Just beyond, enjoy seamless access to a recently restored deck overlooking your private backyard--ideal for relaxing or entertaining. The first floor also offers a powder room, laundry area, and convenient access to the attached garage. Upstairs, hardwood flooring continues throughout. The spacious primary suite includes a walk-in closet and a beautifully updated ensuite bath with a stall shower. Three additional bedrooms offer ample closet space and share a second full bath. Additional highlights include a whole-house natural gas generator, newer roof, central heating and air, tankless hot water heater, and a newer well pressure tank. Meticulously maintained inside and out, this home is ideally located near Routes 195, 9, 95, 295, and the Garden State Parkway for easy commuting. Don't miss out on the opportunity to make this home your own!

Key facts

• 0.42 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1986

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $625k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1 ($13/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $535k (14.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $535k (14.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.3% in Vista Center — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#507 in NJ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Jackson Township School District (suburban): math 26% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #228 of 472 in NJ (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Elms Elementary School (math 32% / reading 44%, grade F, #523 of 1,303 statewide, top 40%, 658 students, 20% FRL); Carl W. Goetz Middle School (math 32% / reading 54%, grade D-, #167 of 431 statewide, top 41%, 989 students, 22% FRL); Jackson Memorial High School (math 28% / reading 57%, grade F, #166 of 399 statewide, top 42%, 1,499 students, 16% FRL) — zoned schools at 19% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 572 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,354/mo this rent would consume 56% of the median local household income ($115k/yr) (locally 1031% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $19k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($606k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $120k; list at $625k implies a 421% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 55% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $535,417 (14.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.01%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $656,527
• List price: $625,000
• Delta: -4.80%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
159 Docare Rd	0.05mi	4/2.5	1,976 (-6%)	12mo	$625,000	$316	77
141 Docare Rd	0.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,900 (-9%)	9mo	$600,000	$316	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-116,872
• Equity at exit: $93,190

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-162,217
• Equity at exit: $54,039

Cash invested: $175,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08527

• Rents YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 572
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,354 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,278
• Tax from tax record: −$691 /mo · $8,288/yr
• Insurance: −$260
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,124
• Net cashflow: $1

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,353

Max offer price $625,000

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $355	-5% $178	+0% $1	+5% $-176	+10% $-353
Rent	-10% $-422	-5% $-210	+0% $1	+5% $213	+10% $424
Rate	-1.0pp $316	-0.5pp $160	base $1	+0.5pp $-161	+1.0pp $-326

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $156,250
• Closing costs: $18,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14 Normandy Dr Unit 1546253P Jackson Township, NJ	4.0	3.0	2992	$7,096	$2.37	18d	1	1.23mi
5 Autumn Ave Jackson, NJ	4.0	2.5	2290	$5,000	$2.18	12d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-04
   status $625,000 Pending 53 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $625,000 Active 53 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $625,000 Active 52 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $625,000 Active 51 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $625,000 Active 50 DOM
6. 2026-04-11
   listed $625,000 Active 1459-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1459 chars)

   First time offered, this beautifully maintained, north facing home with 4-bedrooms, 2.5-baths sits on a private 0.42-acre lot and has been thoughtfully updated over time. Upon entry, a formal living room welcomes you and transitions effortlessly into the dining room, creating an ideal space for entertaining. A warm and inviting interior showcases hardwood flooring, custom crown molding, and abundant natural light pouring through Andersen windows. The renovated kitchen is a standout, featuring granite countertops, a natural gas cooktop, built-in double oven, and an abundance of cabinetry for storage. Just beyond, enjoy seamless access to a recently restored deck overlooking your private backyard--ideal for relaxing or entertaining. The first floor also offers a powder room, laundry area, and convenient access to the attached garage. Upstairs, hardwood flooring continues throughout. The spacious primary suite includes a walk-in closet and a beautifully updated ensuite bath with a stall shower. Three additional bedrooms offer ample closet space and share a second full bath. Additional highlights include a whole-house natural gas generator, newer roof, central heating and air, tankless hot water heater, and a newer well pressure tank. Meticulously maintained inside and out, this home is ideally located near Routes 195, 9, 95, 295, and the Garden State Parkway for easy commuting. Don't miss out on the opportunity to make this home your own!

7. 2026-04-09
   historical $625,000 1459-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1459 chars)

   First time offered, this beautifully maintained, north facing home with 4-bedrooms, 2.5-baths sits on a private 0.42-acre lot and has been thoughtfully updated over time. Upon entry, a formal living room welcomes you and transitions effortlessly into the dining room, creating an ideal space for entertaining. A warm and inviting interior showcases hardwood flooring, custom crown molding, and abundant natural light pouring through Andersen windows. The renovated kitchen is a standout, featuring granite countertops, a natural gas cooktop, built-in double oven, and an abundance of cabinetry for storage. Just beyond, enjoy seamless access to a recently restored deck overlooking your private backyard--ideal for relaxing or entertaining. The first floor also offers a powder room, laundry area, and convenient access to the attached garage. Upstairs, hardwood flooring continues throughout. The spacious primary suite includes a walk-in closet and a beautifully updated ensuite bath with a stall shower. Three additional bedrooms offer ample closet space and share a second full bath. Additional highlights include a whole-house natural gas generator, newer roof, central heating and air, tankless hot water heater, and a newer well pressure tank. Meticulously maintained inside and out, this home is ideally located near Routes 195, 9, 95, 295, and the Garden State Parkway for easy commuting. Don't miss out on the opportunity to make this home your own!

8. 1986-11-24
   soldstatus $119,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $8,288 · $691/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $11,925 · $994/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,637/yr (+$303/mo · 43.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 55% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $64,250
• − Mortgage interest: −$35,010
• − Property taxes: −$8,288
• − Insurance: −$3,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,140
• − Management: −$5,140
• − Depreciation: −$18,182
• Taxable loss: −$10,635
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,552
• After-tax cash flow: $2,566/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jackson Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3407740
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $86,012
• Composite: 35.36/100
• National rank: #4956
• State rank: #228 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Vista Center

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #507
• US rank: #21522

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Ocean County · 439,426 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 58,991
• Household income: $115,487
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1031.0

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 8% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Scotch-Irish 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -349.94%
• Current HPI: 338.3328
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.71%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+421.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Listed $625,000 MOMLS
• 2026-04-09 Coming Soon $625,000 MOMLS
• 1986-11-24 Sold (Public Records) $119,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,288 · -15.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.