411 5th Ave

Dayton, KY 41074

$149,000B

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 1,596 sqft · Built 1890 · Other · Active · 45 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,622/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax + insurance: −$315
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$551
• Net cashflow: $974/mo
• Annual: $11,691/yr
• Cap rate: 14.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.93%
• DSCR: 2.33
• 1% rule: 1.76%
• Cash to close: $41,720

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath other listed at $149k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $974 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $149k).
• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $145k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#67 in KY, #1,485 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+.
• Dayton Independent (suburban): math 23% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #129 of 165 in KY (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Lincoln Elementary School (math 20% / reading 29%, grade F, #489 of 676 statewide, top 76%, 487 students, 82% FRL); Dayton High School (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #97 of 254 statewide, top 46%, 372 students, 78% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.2%/yr); 53 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 247 units permitted in Campbell County in 2024 (77 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.2% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 14.7% vs local median 6.9% in Dayton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,622/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($66k/yr) (locally 215% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.