3641 Hillman Gay Rd

Dearing, GA 30808

$159,900D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Built 1999 · Other · Active · 40 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,566/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax + insurance: −$266
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$329
• Net cashflow: $132/mo
• Annual: $1,588/yr
• Cap rate: 7.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.55%
• DSCR: 1.16
• 1% rule: 0.98%
• Cash to close: $44,772

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $160k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $132 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $157k (2.0% below list).
• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $155k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $12k appreciation (7.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#448 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: employment C-, crime D-, amenities F.
• Mcduffie County (rural): math 12% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #156 of 174 in GA (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Dearing Elementary School (math 27% / reading 27%, grade F, #689 of 1,228 statewide, top 58%, 441 students, 88% FRL); Thomson-Mcduffie Middle School (math 9% / reading 20%, grade F, #403 of 470 statewide, top 86%, 782 students, 89% FRL); Thomson High School (math 2% / reading 17%, grade F, #365 of 424 statewide, top 88%, 986 students, 89% FRL) — zoned schools average 89% FRL vs 65% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 23 active listings in the ZIP; 64 units permitted in McDuffie County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• McDuffie County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $5k; list at $160k implies a 3098% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (7.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 62% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.