3641 Hillman Gay Rd · Dearing, GA 30808

$159,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Other · 38 Days on market

Built 1999 1.02 ac lot $139/sqft · 42% above area Est $113k · 42% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.8/30.0
• Appreciation +8.7/10.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

Looking for a home with land? Want to live in and among the trees? This property may be just what you are looking for! This 3-bedroom and 2 bathroom manufactured home sits on just over an acre down a quiet road. While the home could use some updating and TLC, it offers a rare chance to customize a property to your exact taste. Easy commute to Fort Gordon and nearby conveniences, without being in the hub of it all. Buyer to verify any information they deem important, including measurements.

Key facts

• Among the trees
• Quiet road
• Home with land

Tags

• HOME WITH LAND
• AMONG THE TREES
• QUIET ROAD
• EASY COMMUTE TO FORT GORDON

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: R2
• Financial info: Land is leased

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel/unpaved parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Water connected
• Home design: Manufactured home (residential); One level / single-story; Primary entry on level 1
• Construction: Vinyl siding on frame construction; Block foundation; Composition roof; Built on a 1.02-acre lot
• Exterior features: Front porch; Side porch; Outbuilding; Wooded lot; Paved road access; City street and state road frontage; Has a view

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Electric range
• Bedrooms: Total of 5 rooms (including bedrooms and living spaces)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Heating by fireplace(s), electric, and forced air
• Interior features: Walk-in closets; Eat-in kitchen; No basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $132 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $157k (2.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $155k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#448 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: employment C-, crime D-, amenities F.
• Mcduffie County (rural): math 12% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #156 of 174 in GA (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Dearing Elementary School (math 27% / reading 27%, grade F, #689 of 1,228 statewide, top 58%, 441 students, 88% FRL); Thomson-Mcduffie Middle School (math 9% / reading 20%, grade F, #403 of 470 statewide, top 86%, 782 students, 89% FRL); Thomson High School (math 2% / reading 17%, grade F, #365 of 424 statewide, top 88%, 986 students, 89% FRL) — zoned schools average 89% FRL vs 65% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 23 active listings in the ZIP; 64 units permitted in McDuffie County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $12k appreciation (7.5% local appreciation)).
• McDuffie County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (7.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $5k; list at $160k implies a 3098% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 62% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $155,103 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.55%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $112,627
• List price: $159,900
• Delta: 41.97%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

7.5% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.55×
• Total profit: $69,233
• Equity at exit: $116,065

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.35×
• Total profit: $194,635
• Equity at exit: $225,406

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30808

• Home prices YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 23
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,566 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$200 /mo · $2,398/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$329
• Net cashflow: $132

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,399

Max offer price $159,900

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $243	-5% $188	+0% $132	+5% $77	+10% $22
Rent	-10% $9	-5% $70	+0% $132	+5% $194	+10% $256
Rate	-1.0pp $213	-0.5pp $173	base $132	+0.5pp $91	+1.0pp $49

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,900 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,900 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,900 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,900 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,900 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $159,900 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,900 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $159,900 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $159,900 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $159,900 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $159,900 Active 23 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,900 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,900 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,900 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,900 Active 19 DOM
16. 2026-05-11
    historical
17. 2026-05-01
    listed $159,900 Active
18. 2026-05-01
    listed $159,900 Active 494-char remark
19. 1997-05-13
    soldstatus $5,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 62% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,796
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$2,398
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,504
• − Management: −$1,504
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable loss: −$1,018
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$244
• After-tax cash flow: $1,833/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mcduffie County
• NCES district ID: 1303570
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $37,658
• Composite: 12.98/100
• National rank: #9570
• State rank: #156 of 174 in GA

Livability — Dearing

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #448
• US rank: #21368

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C- Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,302

Population outlook (McDuffie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,590 people
• By 2030: 19,922 · -3.2%
• By 2040: 18,451 · -10.4%
• By 2050: 16,898 · -17.9%
• By 2075: 13,647 · -33.7%
• By 2100: 10,421 · -49.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Black 26% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · McDuffie

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.9) · D 37.4% · R 62.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.0pp toward R · 2008: -14.9pp · 2024: -24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.9 2020: R+19.1 2016: R+18.7 2012: R+15.0 2008: R+14.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.50%
• Current HPI: 273.7709
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+3098.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Listing Removed — Hive MLS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $159,900 Hive MLS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $159,900 Hive MLS
• 1997-05-13 Sold (Public Records) $5,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $157 · +4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.