221-227 Spencer St

Rochester, NY 14608

$279,900B-

None bd · None ba · 6,251 sqft · Built 1920 · MultiFamily · Pending · 27 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $8,556/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax + insurance: −$264
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,797
• Net cashflow: $5,027/mo
• Annual: $60,330/yr
• Cap rate: 27.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 76.98%
• DSCR: 4.43
• 1% rule: 3.06%
• Cash to close: $78,372

Investor read

• This is a 4×2bd/1ba + 1×1bd/1ba units multifamily listed at $280k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $5k ($60k/yr) — positive. Per door: $1k/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($9k rent vs $280k).
• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $276k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (3.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#222 in NY, #3,482 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, employment F.
• Rochester City School District (urban): math 21% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #589 of 590 in NY (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 82% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.6%/yr); 51 active listings in the ZIP; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,169 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (591 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Monroe County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $166k; list at $280k implies a 69% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (3.7% appreciation + 6.6% rent growth), your $78k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 27.8% vs local median 9.3% in Rochester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $8,556/mo this rent would consume 253% of the median local household income ($41k/yr) (locally 1300% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.