170 Ocean Lane Dr #310

Key Biscayne, FL 33149

$779,000D+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,335 sqft · Built 1981 · Condo · Active · 107 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $8,205/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,085
• Tax + insurance: −$1,133
• HOA: −$1,929
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,723
• Net cashflow: $-665/mo
• Annual: $-7,977/yr
• Cap rate: 5.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.31%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 1.05%
• Cash to close: $218,120

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $779k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-665 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $662k (15.1% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($8k rent vs $779k).
• It's been on market 107 days — a 9% lower offer ($709k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $662k (15.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $30k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (3.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#57 in FL, #1,016 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• Miami-Dade (suburban): math 45% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #40 of 73 in FL (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Key Biscayne K-8 Center (math 75% / reading 77%, grade A, #198 of 2,144 statewide, top 10%, 921 students, 7% FRL); Ponce De Leon Middle School (math 36% / reading 55%, grade D+, #305 of 571 statewide, top 54%, 888 students, 60% FRL); Coral Gables Senior High School (math 31% / reading 53%, grade F, #275 of 667 statewide, top 42%, 2,824 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools average 40% FRL vs 64% district-wide (24 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; HOA is 24% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.0%/yr); 205 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 10,051 units permitted in Miami-Dade County in 2024 (7,758 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Miami-Dade County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $220k; list at $779k implies a 254% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$48k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $8,205/mo this rent would consume 54% of the median local household income ($182k/yr) (locally 520% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 107 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?