170 Ocean Lane Dr #310 · Key Biscayne, FL 33149

$779,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,335 sqft · Condo public records · 107 Days on market

Built 1981 $1929/mo HOA · 24% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this bright and inviting 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom condo in the highly sought-after Ocean Lane Plaza, a resort-style community in the heart of Key Biscayne. This well-appointed residence features bright tile flooring throughout the living areas and a large living and dining room combination with wet bar, creating an open and comfortable space perfect for both relaxing and entertaining. The spacious primary suite includes a walk-in closet and an en-suite bath with a separate shower and soaking tub. The galley-style kitchen offers a convenient breakfast bar, ideal for casual dining. Step out onto the large, covered balcony and enjoy peaceful views of the beautifully landscaped grounds.

Key facts

• Bright tile flooring
• Wet bar
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• BRIGHT TILE FLOORING
• LARGE LIVING AND DINING ROOM
• WET BAR
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• EN-SUITE BATH
• SEPARATE SHOWER

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Pets allowed with restrictions (maximum 20 lbs)
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee includes amenities, common areas, grounds and structure maintenance, parking, pool(s), recreation facilities, sewer, security, trash and water; Association amenities: bike storage, clubhouse, fitness center, barbecue/picnic area, playground, pool, spa/hot tub, elevators

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned covered attached garage (1 space)
• Security: Doorman
• Utilities: Cable available
• Home design: Attached property; Located on entry level 3; Building has 9 stories; Exterior lighting
• Construction: Block construction; Resale unit
• Exterior features: Balcony; Open balcony/patio

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Wet bar; Family/dining room; Separate shower; Bar; Walk-in closet(s)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $779k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-665 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $662k (15.1% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($8k rent vs $779k).
• Recommended offer: $662k (15.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#57 in FL, #1,016 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• Miami-Dade (suburban): math 45% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #40 of 73 in FL (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Key Biscayne K-8 Center (math 75% / reading 77%, grade A, #198 of 2,144 statewide, top 10%, 921 students, 7% FRL); Ponce De Leon Middle School (math 36% / reading 55%, grade D+, #305 of 571 statewide, top 54%, 888 students, 60% FRL); Coral Gables Senior High School (math 31% / reading 53%, grade F, #275 of 667 statewide, top 42%, 2,824 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools average 40% FRL vs 64% district-wide (24 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.0%/yr); 205 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 10,051 units permitted in Miami-Dade County in 2024 (7,758 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $8,205/mo this rent would consume 54% of the median local household income ($182k/yr) (locally 520% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $30k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (3.1% local appreciation)).
• Miami-Dade County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$48k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 107 days — a 9% lower offer ($709k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $220k; list at $779k implies a 254% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; HOA is 24% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $661,568 (15.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 107 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.31%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.13% appreciation · 6.96% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.42×
• Total profit: $92,190
• Equity at exit: $356,109

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.03×
• Total profit: $442,485
• Equity at exit: $553,388

Cash invested: $218,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33149

• Home prices YoY: 1.0%
• Rents YoY: 7.0%
• Active inventory: 205
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $8,205 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,085
• Tax from tax record: −$381 /mo · $4,577/yr
• Insurance: −$325
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$1,929
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,723
• Net cashflow: $-665

Break-even live

Break-even rent $9,046

Max offer price $661,568

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-224	-5% $-444	+0% $-665	+5% $-885	+10% $-1,106
Rent	-10% $-1,313	-5% $-989	+0% $-665	+5% $-341	+10% $-17
Rate	-1.0pp $-272	-0.5pp $-467	base $-665	+0.5pp $-867	+1.0pp $-1,072

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $194,750
• Closing costs: $23,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
251 Crandon Blvd #1105 Key Biscayne, FL	2.0	2.0	1368	$7,900	$5.77	26d	1	0.10mi
251 Crandon Blvd #1228 Key Biscayne, FL	2.0	2.0	1532	$8,000	$5.22	26d	1	0.10mi
251 Crandon Blvd #133 Key Biscayne, FL	2.0	2.0	1537	$8,200	$5.34	4d	1	0.10mi
251 Crandon Blvd #202 Key Biscayne, FL	2.0	2.0	1464	$6,900	$4.71	26d	1	0.10mi
251 Crandon Blvd #306 Key Biscayne, FL	2.0	2.0	1546	$11,000	$7.12	5d	1	0.10mi
251 Crandon Blvd #322 Key Biscayne, FL	2.0	2.0	1546	$7,200	$4.66	3d	1	0.10mi
251 Crandon Blvd #338 Key Biscayne, FL	2.0	2.0	1546	$6,500	$4.20	9d	1	0.10mi
251 Crandon Blvd #306 Key Biscayne, FL	2.0	2.0	1546	$11,000	$7.12	26d	1	0.10mi
251 Crandon Blvd #139 Key Biscayne, FL	3.0	2.0	1546	$12,000	$7.76	26d	1	0.10mi
181 Crandon Blvd Key Biscayne, FL	3.0	2.0–2.5	1710	$7,900	$4.62	5d	2	0.11mi
181 Crandon Blvd #306 Key Biscayne, FL	3.0	2.0	1600	$8,000	$5.00	26d	1	0.11mi
50 Ocean Lane Dr #603 Key Biscayne, FL	3.0	2.5	1730	$10,800	$6.24	26d	1	0.13mi
101 Crandon Blvd Key Biscayne, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1660	$3,000	$1.81	0d	4	0.14mi
121 Crandon Blvd Key Biscayne, FL	3.0	2.0–3.0	1725	$6,375	$3.70	7d	2	0.14mi
77 Crandon Blvd Unit 2E Key Biscayne, FL	2.0	2.0	1123	$4,500	$4.01	26d	1	0.19mi
201 Crandon Blvd #507 Key Biscayne, FL	3.0	2.0	1541	$8,900	$5.78	26d	1	0.20mi
201 Crandon Blvd #343 Key Biscayne, FL	2.0	2.0	1541	$7,600	$4.93	24d	1	0.20mi
201 Crandon Blvd #138 Key Biscayne, FL	2.0	3.0	1541	$12,000	$7.79	26d	1	0.20mi
201 Crandon Blvd #505 Key Biscayne, FL	1.0	1.5	1059	$5,000	$4.72	26d	1	0.20mi
201 Crandon Blvd #207 Key Biscayne, FL	2.0	2.0	1541	$5,250	$3.41	26d	1	0.20mi
201 Crandon Blvd #833 Key Biscayne, FL	2.0	2.0	1541	$9,500	$6.16	3d	1	0.20mi
201 Crandon Blvd #138 Key Biscayne, FL	2.0	3.0	1541	$12,000	$7.79	5d	1	0.20mi
201 Crandon Blvd #120 Key Biscayne, FL	1.0	2.0	1009	$3,795	$3.76	26d	1	0.20mi
201 Crandon Blvd #833 Key Biscayne, FL	2.0	2.0	1541	$9,500	$6.16	4d	1	0.20mi
201 Crandon Blvd #1027 Key Biscayne, FL	2.0	2.0	1531	$9,500	$6.21	9d	1	0.20mi
201 Crandon Blvd #928 Key Biscayne, FL	2.0	2.0	1541	$6,100	$3.96	26d	1	0.20mi
201 Crandon Blvd #1027 Key Biscayne, FL	2.0	2.0	1531	$9,500	$6.21	22d	1	0.20mi
151 Crandon Blvd #444 Key Biscayne, FL	2.0	2.0	1684	$9,200	$5.46	26d	1	0.21mi
151 Crandon Blvd #441 Key Biscayne, FL	2.0	2.0	1532	$6,500	$4.24	24d	1	0.21mi
151 Crandon Blvd #1036 Key Biscayne, FL	2.0	2.0	1532	$7,000	$4.57	26d	1	0.21mi
151 Crandon Blvd #405 Key Biscayne, FL	2.0	2.0	1821	$7,800	$4.28	5d	1	0.21mi
151 Crandon Blvd #120 Key Biscayne, FL	2.0	2.0	1454	$6,000	$4.13	26d	1	0.21mi
151 Crandon Blvd #405 Key Biscayne, FL	2.0	2.0	1821	$7,800	$4.28	18d	1	0.21mi
151 Crandon Blvd #1036 Key Biscayne, FL	2.0	2.0	1532	$7,000	$4.57	5d	1	0.21mi
360 Ocean Dr Unit 905S Key Biscayne, FL	2.0	2.5	1703	$20,000	$11.74	26d	1	0.31mi
360 Ocean Dr Unit 905S Key Biscayne, FL	2.0	2.5	1703	$20,000	$11.74	5d	1	0.31mi
350 Ocean Dr Unit 1105N Key Biscayne, FL	2.0	3.5	1727	$25,000	$14.48	26d	1	0.32mi
350 Ocean Dr Unit 1105N Key Biscayne, FL	2.0	3.5	1727	$23,500	$13.61	0d	1	0.32mi
350 Ocean Dr Unit 305N Key Biscayne, FL	2.0	3.5	1542	$18,000	$11.67	0d	1	0.32mi
255 Galen Dr Unit 3D Key Biscayne, FL	2.0	2.0	1036	$4,450	$4.30	15d	1	0.54mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $1,929 · $23,148/yr
• Likely covers: landscaping
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $779,000 Active 107 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $779,000 Active 104 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $779,000 Active 103 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $779,000 Active 102 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $779,000 Active 101 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $779,000 Active 99 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $779,000 Active 95 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $779,000 Active 94 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $779,000 Active 93 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $779,000 Active 90 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $779,000 Active 89 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $779,000 Active 88 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $779,000 Active 87 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $779,000 Active 86 DOM
15. 2026-05-06
    price $779,000
16. 2026-03-05
    listed $799,000 Active
17. 2000-09-07
    soldstatus $220,000
18. 1994-09-21
    soldstatus $185,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,577 · $381/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,466 · $539/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,889/yr (+$157/mo · 41.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $98,460
• − Mortgage interest: −$43,636
• − Property taxes: −$4,577
• − Insurance: −$9,014
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$7,877
• − Management: −$7,877
• − HOA: −$23,148
• − Depreciation: −$22,662
• Taxable loss: −$20,330
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,879
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,098/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Miami-Dade
• NCES district ID: 1200390
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,928
• Composite: 41.76/100
• National rank: #3397
• State rank: #40 of 73 in FL

Livability — Key Biscayne

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #57
• US rank: #1016

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Key Biscayne, FL
• County: Miami-Dade County · 2,697,751 people
• City population: 14,791
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 14,791
• Household income: $181,505
• Rent vs Own: 33.4% rent · 66.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 520.0

Population outlook (Miami-Dade County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,126,439 people
• By 2030: 3,325,765 · +6.4%
• By 2040: 3,697,561 · +18.3%
• By 2050: 4,012,134 · +28.3%
• By 2075: 4,605,612 · +47.3%
• By 2100: 4,866,598 · +55.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 73% Two or more races 51% White 23%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 9% Salvadoran 11%
• Common ancestry: Estonian 4% Russian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 59% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 17% English-only · Spanish 72% Other Indo-European 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Miami-Dade

• 2024 margin: R (+11.4) · D 43.9% · R 55.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.6pp toward R · 2008: 16.1pp · 2024: -11.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.4 2020: D+7.3 2016: D+29.6 2012: D+23.7 2008: D+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.13%
• Current HPI: 314.6175
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.96%
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+321.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $779,000 MARMLS
• 2026-03-05 Listed $799,000 MARMLS
• 2000-09-07 Sold (Public Records) $220,000 Public Records
• 1994-09-21 Sold (Public Records) $185,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,577 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.