4 bd · 2.5 ba ·
1,968 sqft ·
Built 2026
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 118 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,274/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,374
Tax + insurance
−$437
HOA
−$25
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$478
Net cashflow
$-39/mo
Annual
$-469/yr
Cap rate
6.11%
Cash-on-cash
-0.64%
DSCR
0.97
1% rule
0.87%
Cash to close
$73,357
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $262k. Condition is rated good.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-39 ($-469/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $256k (2.2% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $227k (13.2% below list).
It's been on market 118 days — a 9% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $227k (13.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 70/100 on livability (#367 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: crime C-, employment D, amenities F.
Marble Falls ISD (town): math 32% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #511 of 826 in TX (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Colt El (math 35% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,883 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 644 students, 62% FRL); Marble Falls Middle (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #858 of 1,662 statewide, top 54%, 911 students, 67% FRL); Marble Falls H S (math 29% / reading 47%, grade F, #880 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 1,145 students, 61% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 1617 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 43d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 80% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 891 units permitted in Burnet County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).
Burnet County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 2.5% in Marble Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $2,274/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($55k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 118 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-HKJJBZ1MBN6R5F
· Data 5 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29