14777 Palm Dr #174

Desert Hot Springs, CA 92240

$179,999D+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,380 sqft · Built 1975 · Manufactured · Active · 171 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,791/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax + insurance: −$300
• HOA: −$215
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$376
• Net cashflow: $-44/mo
• Annual: $-531/yr
• Cap rate: 6.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.05%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.99%
• Cash to close: $50,400

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $180k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-44 ($-531/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $174k (3.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $179k (0.5% below list).
• It's been on market 171 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $158k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 49/100 on livability (#1,149 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing B+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Palm Springs Unified (suburban): math 21% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #328 of 517 in CA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Two Bunch Palms Elementary (711 students, 97% FRL); Painted Hills Middle (741 students, 98% FRL); Desert Hot Springs High (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #532 of 1,170 statewide, top 48%, 1,742 students, 98% FRL) — zoned schools average 98% FRL vs 73% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 626 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 65d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 74% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.0% in Desert Hot Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($54k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 171 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?