1244 Shiawassee River Rd

Three Rivers, MI 49093

$79,000B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,700 sqft · Built 1993 · SingleFamily · Pending · 91 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,395/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$414
• Tax + insurance: −$132
• HOA: −$425
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$503
• Net cashflow: $921/mo
• Annual: $11,053/yr
• Cap rate: 20.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 49.97%
• DSCR: 3.22
• 1% rule: 3.03%
• Cash to close: $22,120

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $79k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $921 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $79k).
• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($72k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $72k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $546 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#306 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Three Rivers Community Schools (town): math 37% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #200 of 540 in MI (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Park Elementary School (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #606 of 1,397 statewide, top 48%, 276 students, 56% FRL); Three Rivers Middle School (math 30% / reading 40%, grade F, #283 of 493 statewide, top 58%, 537 students, 47% FRL); Three Rivers High School (math 27% / reading 57%, grade F, #264 of 713 statewide, top 41%, 653 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools at 49% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 182 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 125 units permitted in St. Joseph County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Joseph County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 6 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $66k; 19% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 20.3% vs local median 4.7% in Three Rivers — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.