1244 Shiawassee River Rd · Three Rivers, MI 49093

$79,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,700 sqft · SingleFamily · 91 Days on market

Built 1993 $425/mo HOA · 18% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Very nice 3 Bed, 2 Bath home in the River Run Estates near the Portage River. This home has a great back deck overlooking the tree lined back yard. Roof, furnace, water heater are newer. This sale is for the home only. The lot is leased and all prospective buyers will be required to apply and be approved through management of the River Run Estates. Cash or mobile home financing available. Lot Rent is $425 per month.

Key facts

• Newer furnace
• Newer roof
• Tree lined back yard

Tags

• BACK DECK
• TREE LINED BACK YARD
• NEWER ROOF
• NEWER FURNACE
• NEWER WATER HEATER

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $79,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$265,200) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $79k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $921 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $79k).
• Recommended offer: $72k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.3% vs local median 5.2% in Three Rivers — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#306 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Three Rivers Community Schools (town): math 37% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #200 of 540 in MI (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Park Elementary School (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #606 of 1,397 statewide, top 48%, 276 students, 56% FRL); Three Rivers Middle School (math 30% / reading 40%, grade F, #283 of 493 statewide, top 58%, 537 students, 47% FRL); Three Rivers High School (math 27% / reading 57%, grade F, #264 of 713 statewide, top 41%, 653 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools at 49% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 181 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 125 units permitted in St. Joseph County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $546 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Joseph County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($72k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $66k; 19% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $71,890 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 49.97%
• DSCR: 3.22
• GRM: 2.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $265,200
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
938 Clausen Ave	0.45mi	3/1.0	1,800 (+6%)	5mo	$137,000	$76	61
1107 Elm St	0.59mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,720 (+1%)	8mo	$260,000	$151	59
416 Tenth Ave	0.52mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,768 (+4%)	8mo	$175,000	$99	57
604 Arizona Blvd	0.53mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,830 (+8%)	4mo	$284,900	$156	52
606 Arizona Blvd	0.51mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,882 (+11%)	2mo	$289,900	$154	49
613 Arizona Blvd	0.43mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,830 (+8%)	13mo	$289,900	$158	49
612 Arizona Blvd	0.48mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,830 (+8%)	11mo	$295,230	$161	48
613 Arizona Blvd	0.46mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,830 (+8%)	13mo	$289,900	$158	48
611 Arizona Blvd	0.47mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,882 (+11%)	11mo	$289,900	$154	44
602 Arizona Blvd	0.54mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,882 (+11%)	7mo	$299,900	$159	44
608 Arizona Blvd	0.50mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,909 (+12%)	7mo	$289,900	$152	43
57089 Linda Ave	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,844 (+8%)	13mo	$305,900	$166	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 47.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.09×
• Total profit: $46,161
• Equity at exit: $11,779

10-year hold

• IRR: 53.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.29×
• Total profit: $116,945
• Equity at exit: $6,830

Cash invested: $22,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49093

• Active inventory: 181
• Price-to-rent: 2.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,395 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$414
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$99 /mo · $1,185/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$425
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$503
• Net cashflow: $921

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,229

Max offer price $79,000

Occupancy floor 57%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $976	-5% $948	+0% $921	+5% $894	+10% $867
Rent	-10% $732	-5% $826	+0% $921	+5% $1,016	+10% $1,110
Rate	-1.0pp $961	-0.5pp $941	base $921	+0.5pp $901	+1.0pp $880

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,750
• Closing costs: $2,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1645 Garfield Three Rivers, MI	4.0	2.5	1810	$2,395	$1.32	23d	1	0.84mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $425 · $5,100/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-04-14
   status Pending 419-char remark

   Show marketing remark (419 chars)

   Very nice 3 Bed, 2 Bath home in the River Run Estates near the Portage River. This home has a great back deck overlooking the tree lined back yard. Roof, furnace, water heater are newer. This sale is for the home only. The lot is leased and all prospective buyers will be required to apply and be approved through management of the River Run Estates. Cash or mobile home financing available. Lot Rent is $425 per month.

2. 2026-04-14
   status Pending 419-char remark

   Show marketing remark (419 chars)

   Very nice 3 Bed, 2 Bath home in the River Run Estates near the Portage River. This home has a great back deck overlooking the tree lined back yard. Roof, furnace, water heater are newer. This sale is for the home only. The lot is leased and all prospective buyers will be required to apply and be approved through management of the River Run Estates. Cash or mobile home financing available. Lot Rent is $425 per month.

3. 2026-04-14
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (419 chars)

   Very nice 3 Bed, 2 Bath home in the River Run Estates near the Portage River. This home has a great back deck overlooking the tree lined back yard. Roof, furnace, water heater are newer. This sale is for the home only. The lot is leased and all prospective buyers will be required to apply and be approved through management of the River Run Estates. Cash or mobile home financing available. Lot Rent is $425 per month.

4. 2026-03-20
   price $79,000 419-char remark

   Show marketing remark (419 chars)

   Very nice 3 Bed, 2 Bath home in the River Run Estates near the Portage River. This home has a great back deck overlooking the tree lined back yard. Roof, furnace, water heater are newer. This sale is for the home only. The lot is leased and all prospective buyers will be required to apply and be approved through management of the River Run Estates. Cash or mobile home financing available. Lot Rent is $425 per month.

5. 2026-03-20
   price $79,000 419-char remark

   Show marketing remark (419 chars)

   Very nice 3 Bed, 2 Bath home in the River Run Estates near the Portage River. This home has a great back deck overlooking the tree lined back yard. Roof, furnace, water heater are newer. This sale is for the home only. The lot is leased and all prospective buyers will be required to apply and be approved through management of the River Run Estates. Cash or mobile home financing available. Lot Rent is $425 per month.

6. 2026-03-20
   price $79,000

   Show marketing remark (419 chars)

   Very nice 3 Bed, 2 Bath home in the River Run Estates near the Portage River. This home has a great back deck overlooking the tree lined back yard. Roof, furnace, water heater are newer. This sale is for the home only. The lot is leased and all prospective buyers will be required to apply and be approved through management of the River Run Estates. Cash or mobile home financing available. Lot Rent is $425 per month.

7. 2026-01-13
   listed $84,000 Active 419-char remark

   Show marketing remark (419 chars)

   Very nice 3 Bed, 2 Bath home in the River Run Estates near the Portage River. This home has a great back deck overlooking the tree lined back yard. Roof, furnace, water heater are newer. This sale is for the home only. The lot is leased and all prospective buyers will be required to apply and be approved through management of the River Run Estates. Cash or mobile home financing available. Lot Rent is $425 per month.

8. 2026-01-13
   listed $84,000 Active 419-char remark

   Show marketing remark (419 chars)

   Very nice 3 Bed, 2 Bath home in the River Run Estates near the Portage River. This home has a great back deck overlooking the tree lined back yard. Roof, furnace, water heater are newer. This sale is for the home only. The lot is leased and all prospective buyers will be required to apply and be approved through management of the River Run Estates. Cash or mobile home financing available. Lot Rent is $425 per month.

9. 2026-01-13
   listed $84,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (419 chars)

   Very nice 3 Bed, 2 Bath home in the River Run Estates near the Portage River. This home has a great back deck overlooking the tree lined back yard. Roof, furnace, water heater are newer. This sale is for the home only. The lot is leased and all prospective buyers will be required to apply and be approved through management of the River Run Estates. Cash or mobile home financing available. Lot Rent is $425 per month.

10. 2023-07-21
    soldstatus $66,200 Sold
11. 2023-07-21
    soldstatus $66,200 Sold
12. 2023-07-21
    soldstatus $66,200 Closed
13. 2023-06-09
    status Pending
14. 2023-06-09
    status Pending
15. 2023-06-09
    status Pending
16. 2023-05-01
    listed $75,000 Active
17. 2023-05-01
    listed $75,000 Active
18. 2023-05-01
    listed $75,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,740
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,425
• − Property taxes: −$1,185
• − Insurance: −$395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,299
• − Management: −$2,299
• − HOA: −$5,100
• − Depreciation: −$2,298
• Taxable income: $10,738
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,577
• After-tax cash flow: $8,476/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Three Rivers Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2633840
• Math proficiency: 37% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,576
• Composite: 34.97/100
• National rank: #5058
• State rank: #200 of 540 in MI

Livability — Three Rivers

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #306
• US rank: #7604

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Three Rivers, MI
• Population (ZIP): 18,439

Population outlook (St. Joseph County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 58,726 people
• By 2030: 57,030 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 53,266 · -9.3%
• By 2050: 49,343 · -16.0%
• By 2075: 40,441 · -31.1%
• By 2100: 31,981 · -45.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 11% Iranian 5% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Joseph

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+34.0) · D 32.2% · R 66.2% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.8pp toward R · 2008: -2.2pp · 2024: -34.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+34.0 2020: R+31.7 2016: R+31.0 2012: R+12.3 2008: R+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -159.07%
• Current HPI: 226.5079
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+5.3% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-04-14 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-14 Pending — SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $79,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $79,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $79,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-01-13 Listed $84,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-01-13 Listed $84,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-01-13 Listed $84,000 REALCOMP
• 2023-07-21 Sold (MLS) $66,200 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-07-21 Sold (MLS) $66,200 SW Michigan MLS
• 2023-07-21 Sold (MLS) $66,200 REALCOMP
• 2023-06-09 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2023-06-09 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-06-09 Pending — SW Michigan MLS
• 2023-05-01 Listed $75,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-05-01 Listed $75,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2023-05-01 Listed $75,000 REALCOMP