6191 N Pine River Rd Lot : 20

Dover, MI 49656

$119,900F

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · Built 1960 · SingleFamily · Pending · 41 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $815/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax + insurance: −$200
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$171
• Net cashflow: $-185/mo
• Annual: $-2,217/yr
• Cap rate: 4.44%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.60%
• DSCR: 0.71
• 1% rule: 0.68%
• Cash to close: $33,572

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-185 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $93k (22.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $81k (32.0% below list).
• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($116k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $81k (32.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($829 loan paydown + $9k appreciation (7.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Pine River Area Schools (rural): math 22% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #369 of 540 in MI (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pine River Area Elementary School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade C-, #328 of 1,397 statewide, top 26%, 295 students, 70% FRL); Pine River Area Middle School (math 18% / reading 31%, grade F, #388 of 493 statewide, top 80%, 262 students, 63% FRL); Pine River Area High School (math 17% / reading 42%, grade F, #441 of 713 statewide, top 64%, 417 students, 57% FRL) — zoned schools average 63% FRL vs 48% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 44 active listings in the ZIP; 30 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lake County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.