6191 N Pine River Rd Lot : 20 · Dover, MI 49656

$119,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · SingleFamily · 41 Days on market

Built 1960 1.88 ac lot $167/sqft · at area comps Est $117k · at est. ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +8.6/10.0
• Cash flow +6.8/30.0
• ARV discount +6.3/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks

Attention outdoor enthusiast here is a rare find- 1.88 acres of wooded property with a 1 bedroom cabin that can be used for year around fun. Cabin is ideally situated near the Pine River with easy access to state land and boat ramp at the end of the road. Whether you’re seeking a year around home, hunting base, fishing retreat, or peaceful retreat, this is your property.

Key facts

• 1.88 acres
• Near the pine river
• Wooded property

Tags

• 1.88 ACRES
• WOODED PROPERTY
• NEAR THE PINE RIVER
• EASY ACCESS TO STATE LAND
• BOAT RAMP

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Private well water; Septic system; Electric-powered water heater; Electric service available
• Home design: One-story residential home; Built in 1960; Lot: 20; Located in the Pine River Retreat subdivision, Dover Township, mail city Luther
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Crawl foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Porch; Shed/outbuilding; Wooded, subdivision setting; Gravel road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Range/oven; Refrigerator; Kitchen on main level, approximately 14 x 14, vinyl flooring
• Bedrooms: First-floor bedroom (main level), approximately 22 x 10, vinyl flooring
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring in living room, dining room, kitchen and bedroom
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Wood and electric heat sources; Electric water heater
• Interior features: Wood stove fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-185 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $93k (22.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $81k (32.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $81k (32.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Pine River Area Schools (rural): math 22% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #369 of 540 in MI (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pine River Area Elementary School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade C-, #328 of 1,397 statewide, top 26%, 295 students, 70% FRL); Pine River Area Middle School (math 18% / reading 31%, grade F, #388 of 493 statewide, top 80%, 262 students, 63% FRL); Pine River Area High School (math 17% / reading 42%, grade F, #441 of 713 statewide, top 64%, 417 students, 57% FRL) — zoned schools average 63% FRL vs 48% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 44 active listings in the ZIP; 30 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($829 loan paydown + $9k appreciation (7.2% local appreciation)).
• Lake County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($116k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $81,497 (32.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.44%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.60%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $116,900
• List price: $119,900
• Delta: 2.57%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6191 N Pine River Rd	0.00mi	1/1.0	720 (0%)	0mo	$116,900	$162	100
6191 N Pine River Rd Lot : 20	0.00mi	1/1.0	720 (0%)	0mo	$116,900	$162	100

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.18% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.94×
• Total profit: $31,426
• Equity at exit: $84,485

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.98×
• Total profit: $100,054
• Equity at exit: $161,764

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49656

• Home prices YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 44
• Price-to-rent: 12.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $815 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$150 /mo · $1,798/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$171
• Net cashflow: $-185

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,049

Max offer price $93,163

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-102	-5% $-143	+0% $-185	+5% $-226	+10% $-268
Rent	-10% $-249	-5% $-217	+0% $-185	+5% $-153	+10% $-120
Rate	-1.0pp $-124	-0.5pp $-154	base $-185	+0.5pp $-216	+1.0pp $-247

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-04
   statusdays on market $119,900 Pending 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $119,900 Active 40 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $119,900 Active 39 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $119,900 Active 38 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $119,900 Active 37 DOM
6. 2026-04-23
   listed $129,900 Active 392-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,780
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$1,798
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$782
• − Management: −$782
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable loss: −$4,387
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,053
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,164/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pine River Area Schools
• NCES district ID: 2628200
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $41,589
• Composite: 25.34/100
• National rank: #7475
• State rank: #369 of 540 in MI

Livability — Dover

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,111

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,933 people
• By 2030: 10,503 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 9,470 · -13.4%
• By 2050: 8,526 · -22.0%
• By 2075: 7,160 · -34.5%
• By 2100: 5,634 · -48.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10% Puerto Rican 8%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.2) · D 33.2% · R 65.4% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -44.5pp toward R · 2008: 12.3pp · 2024: -32.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.2 2020: R+26.2 2016: R+22.9 2012: D+5.0 2008: D+12.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.18%
• Current HPI: 216.7299
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-10.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Sold (MLS) $116,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-06-03 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $119,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-23 Listed $129,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS