281 Possum Point Dr

Crooked Creek, GA 31024

$249,000D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,792 sqft · Built 2016 · Manufactured · Active · 16 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,188/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax + insurance: −$415
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$460
• Net cashflow: $8/mo
• Annual: $97/yr
• Cap rate: 6.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.14%
• DSCR: 1.01
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $69,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $249k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $8 ($97/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $219k (12.1% below list).
• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($245k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $219k (12.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 39/100 on livability (#613 in GA) — a limited-amenity area; tenant pool skews transient or value-seeking. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Putnam County (rural): math 33% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #86 of 174 in GA (top 49%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 522 active listings in the ZIP; 129 units permitted in Putnam County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Putnam County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 50% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 1.6% in Crooked Creek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.