281 Possum Point Dr · Crooked Creek, GA 31024

$249,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,792 sqft · Manufactured public records · 16 Days on market

Built 2016 1.08 ac lot Est $319k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.5/30.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great newer home in a quiet lake neighborhood with GREAT location! This home is spacious, private, finished beautifully and is ready for new owners! Inside you'll find 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, a beautiful kitchen with plenty of cabinets and counter space, a large laundry/mud room, generously sized living space and a built in desk/office area. You have a carport on the backside of the home with a storage building and a covered front porch facing the road. This home is in a superb location on a great, level and mostly clear lot. Call today and let's get you SOLD!

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Storage building
• Carport

Tags

• FINISHED BEAUTIFULLY
• LARGE LAUNDRY MUD ROOM
• BUILT IN DESK OFFICE AREA
• CARPORT
• STORAGE BUILDING
• COVERED FRONT PORCH

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel parking
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Manufactured home (Residential); Single-story
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Microwave; Dishwasher; Dryer; Range; Refrigerator; Washer; Central heating; Central air
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $249k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $8 ($97/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $219k (12.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $219k (12.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 1.6% in Crooked Creek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 39/100 on livability (#613 in GA) — a limited-amenity area; tenant pool skews transient or value-seeking. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Putnam County (rural): math 33% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #86 of 174 in GA (top 49%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 522 active listings in the ZIP; 129 units permitted in Putnam County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Putnam County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($245k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 50% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $218,839 (12.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.14%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $318,976
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
230 Possum Point Dr	0.40mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,944 (+8%)	18mo	$254,000	$131	47
208 Possum Pt	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,584 (-12%)	22mo	$282,500	$178	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-39,803
• Equity at exit: $37,127

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-33,866
• Equity at exit: $21,529

Cash invested: $69,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31024

• Active inventory: 522
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,188 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$311 /mo · $3,735/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$460
• Net cashflow: $8

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,178

Max offer price $249,000

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,250
• Closing costs: $7,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $249,000 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,000 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,000 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,000 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,000 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $249,000 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $249,000 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,000 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,000 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $249,000 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    remarks 567-char remark
12. 2026-06-03
    listed $249,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 50% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,261
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,948
• − Property taxes: −$3,735
• − Insurance: −$1,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,101
• − Management: −$2,101
• − Depreciation: −$7,244
• Taxable loss: −$4,113
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$987
• After-tax cash flow: $1,084/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Putnam County
• NCES district ID: 1304260
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,038
• Composite: 26.9/100
• National rank: #7088
• State rank: #86 of 174 in GA

Livability — Crooked Creek

• Score: 39/100
• State rank: #613
• US rank: #27435

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Putnam County · 21,601 people
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 21,601
• Household income: $65,971
• Rent vs Own: 19.9% rent · 80.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 696.0

Population outlook (Putnam County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,747 people
• By 2030: 20,163 · -2.8%
• By 2040: 18,680 · -10.0%
• By 2050: 17,117 · -17.5%
• By 2075: 13,269 · -36.0%
• By 2100: 9,234 · -55.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Black 26% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Putnam

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.2) · D 28.7% · R 71.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.9pp toward R · 2008: -31.4pp · 2024: -42.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.2 2020: R+40.9 2016: R+40.0 2012: R+35.8 2008: R+31.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -199.84%
• Current HPI: 269.8265
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $249,000 LCBR

Property tax history

+13.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $469 · +17.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.