405 Grover Cleveland Hwy

Eggertsville, NY 14226

$263,000D

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,218 sqft · Built 1957 · SingleFamily · Active · 89 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,941/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,379
• Tax + insurance: −$523
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$408
• Net cashflow: $-368/mo
• Annual: $-4,422/yr
• Cap rate: 4.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.00%
• DSCR: 0.73
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $73,640

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $263k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-368 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $198k (24.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $194k (26.2% below list).
• It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($247k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $194k (26.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#34 in NY, #534 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities C-.
• Amherst Central School District (suburban): math 53% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #209 of 590 in NY (top 35%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Windermere Blvd School (math 37% / reading 62%, grade D, #1,085 of 2,108 statewide, top 56%, 748 students, 49% FRL); Amherst Middle School (math 36% / reading 69%, grade C+, #235 of 729 statewide, top 33%, 623 students, 34% FRL); Amherst Central High School (math 100% / reading 82%, grade A+, #226 of 1,100 statewide, top 21%, 870 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 40% FRL vs 22% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.0%/yr); 144 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $86k; list at $263k implies a 204% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.