405 Grover Cleveland Hwy · Eggertsville, NY 14226

$263,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,218 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 89 Days on market

Built 1957 6,525 sqft lot $216/sqft · 23% below area Est $340k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Rent growth +4.8/5.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Tenant Occupied. 24 Hour notice for showings

Key facts

• 6,525 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1957

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $263,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$340,216) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $263k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-368 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $198k (24.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $194k (26.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $194k (26.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#34 in NY, #534 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities C-.
• Amherst Central School District (suburban): math 53% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #209 of 590 in NY (top 35%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Windermere Blvd School (math 37% / reading 62%, grade D, #1,085 of 2,108 statewide, top 56%, 748 students, 49% FRL); Amherst Middle School (math 36% / reading 69%, grade C+, #235 of 729 statewide, top 33%, 623 students, 34% FRL); Amherst Central High School (math 100% / reading 82%, grade A+, #226 of 1,100 statewide, top 21%, 870 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 40% FRL vs 22% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.0%/yr); 144 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($247k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $86k; list at $263k implies a 204% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $194,109 (26.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.00%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $340,216
• List price: $263,000
• Delta: -22.70%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
130 Stevenson Blvd	0.12mi	3/1.5	1,232 (+1%)	1mo	$347,000	$282	92
1425 Eggert Rd	0.34mi	3/1.0	1,196 (-2%)	1mo	$165,000	$138	78
329 Springville Ave	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,306 (+7%)	0mo	$322,040	$247	72
233 Crosby Blvd	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,110 (-9%)	1mo	$360,000	$324	72
206 Lamont Dr	0.47mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,188 (-2%)	4mo	$300,000	$253	66
29 Danebrock Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,237 (+2%)	2mo	$298,000	$241	64
1436 Eggert Rd	0.32mi	3/1.5	1,380 (+13%)	2mo	$265,000	$192	62
414 Longmeadow Rd	0.41mi	3/1.0	1,111 (-9%)	3mo	$270,000	$243	62
511 Capen Blvd	0.57mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,260 (+3%)	1mo	$260,504	$207	60
50 Fairchild Dr	0.30mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,398 (+15%)	3mo	$340,000	$243	53
12 Delta Rd	0.62mi	3/1.5	1,374 (+13%)	4mo	$260,000	$189	47
1789 Eggert Rd	0.66mi	3/1.0	1,368 (+12%)	4mo	$235,000	$172	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-55,746
• Equity at exit: $39,214

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-31,743
• Equity at exit: $22,739

Cash invested: $73,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14226

• Rents YoY: 9.0%
• Active inventory: 144
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,941 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,379
• Tax from tax record: −$413 /mo · $4,958/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$408
• Net cashflow: $-368

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,408

Max offer price $197,907

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-220	-5% $-294	+0% $-368	+5% $-443	+10% $-517
Rent	-10% $-522	-5% $-445	+0% $-368	+5% $-292	+10% $-215
Rate	-1.0pp $-236	-0.5pp $-302	base $-368	+0.5pp $-437	+1.0pp $-506

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,750
• Closing costs: $7,890
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
348 Capen Blvd Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.5	1424	$2,200	$1.54	3d	1	0.57mi
780 Millersport Hwy Unit 1 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	850	$1,395	$1.64	45d	1	0.67mi
212 Dellwood Rd Buffalo, NY	4.0	4.0	1209	$3,400	$2.81	3d	2	0.90mi
63 Garnet Rd Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	800	$1,350	$1.69	45d	1	0.91mi
60 Englewood Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.0	1400	$1,650	$1.18	3d	1	1.22mi
4765 N Bailey Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$2,100	$2.33	45d	1	1.25mi
79 Rosemont Dr Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1071	$2,200	$2.05	45d	1	1.26mi
182 Woodcrest Dr Amherst, NY	3.0	1.5	1380	$2,300	$1.67	21d	1	1.37mi
33 Tillotson Pl Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1143	$2,095	$1.83	16d	1	1.40mi
507 Lisbon Ave Unit 2 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	850	$1,050	$1.24	45d	1	1.42mi
222 Lisbon Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.0	1300	$1,400	$1.08	25d	1	1.43mi
222 Lisbon Ave Unit Upper Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1400	$1,400	$1.00	45d	1	1.43mi
265 Lisbon Ave Unit 2 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,400	$1.17	45d	1	1.44mi
151 Lamson Rd Buffalo, NY	4.0	2.0	1382	$2,350	$1.70	18d	1	1.47mi
2 Angle St Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	725	$1,212	$1.67	16d	2	1.49mi
26 Custer St Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	45d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-03-01
   listed $263,000 Active 44-char remark

   Show marketing remark (44 chars)

   Tenant Occupied. 24 Hour notice for showings

2. 2021-04-30
   historical
3. 2021-04-18
   status Active
4. 2021-04-08
   status Under Contract- Do Not Show
5. 2020-10-31
   listed $159,999 Active
6. 2017-12-27
   soldstatus $86,500 Closed Sale or Rented
7. 2017-11-20
   status Pending Sale
8. 2017-11-09
   listed $68,900 Active
9. 2007-11-07
   soldstatus $88,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,958 · $413/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,958 · $413/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,293
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,732
• − Property taxes: −$4,958
• − Insurance: −$1,315
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,863
• − Management: −$1,863
• − Depreciation: −$7,651
• Taxable loss: −$9,090
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,182
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,240/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Amherst Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3602920
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $68,551
• Composite: 53.21/100
• National rank: #1502
• State rank: #209 of 590 in NY

Livability — Eggertsville

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #34
• US rank: #534

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime C- Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Eggertsville, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 29,482
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 29,159
• Household income: $84,325
• Rent vs Own: 29.0% rent · 71.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 856.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 10% Asian 7% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China, India
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Other Indo-European 4% Spanish 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -270.71%
• Current HPI: 331.1929
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.01%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+198.9% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-01 Listed $263,000 WNYREIS
• 2021-04-30 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2021-04-18 Relisted — WNYREIS
• 2021-04-08 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2020-10-31 Listed $159,999 WNYREIS
• 2017-12-27 Sold (MLS) $86,500 WNYREIS
• 2017-11-20 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2017-11-09 Listed $68,900 WNYREIS
• 2007-11-07 Sold (Public Records) $88,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,958 · +8.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.