183 Old Country Rd

Remsenburg-Speonk, NY 11972

$859,000B+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,060 sqft · Built 1975 · SingleFamily · Pending · 34 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $26,523/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,505
• Tax + insurance: −$1,151
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$5,570
• Net cashflow: $15,298/mo
• Annual: $183,573/yr
• Cap rate: 27.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 76.32%
• DSCR: 4.40
• 1% rule: 3.09%
• Cash to close: $240,520

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $859k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $15k ($184k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($27k rent vs $859k).
• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($833k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $833k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($6k loan paydown + $21k appreciation (2.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Eastport-South Manor CSD (suburban): math 62% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #147 of 590 in NY (top 25%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 11% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Eastport Elementary School (math 67% / reading 77%, grade A-, #378 of 2,108 statewide, top 20%, 348 students, 0% FRL); Eastport-South Manor Junior Senior High School (math 68% / reading 61%, grade B-, #776 of 1,100 statewide, top 73%, 1,530 students, 20% FRL) — zoned schools at 10% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $470k; list at $859k implies a 83% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (2.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $241k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$68k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 27.7% vs local median 7.2% in Remsenburg-Speonk — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.