1361 Almond St

Selma, CA 93662

$365,000F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,224 sqft · Built 1979 · SingleFamily · Pending · 51 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,030/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,914
• Tax + insurance: −$450
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$636
• Net cashflow: $29/mo
• Annual: $350/yr
• Cap rate: 6.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.34%
• DSCR: 1.02
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $102,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $365k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $29 ($350/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $303k (17.0% below list).
• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($354k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $303k (17.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#658 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A-, commute B+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, employment F.
• Selma Unified (town): math 20% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #250 of 517 in CA (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Theodore Roosevelt Elementary (636 students, 91% FRL); Abraham Lincoln Middle (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #277 of 498 statewide, top 73%, 888 students, 91% FRL); Selma High (math 22% / reading 63%, grade F, #466 of 1,170 statewide, top 40%, 1,742 students, 88% FRL) — zoned schools average 90% FRL vs 73% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 60 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,426 units permitted in Fresno County in 2024 (296 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Fresno County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.8% in Selma — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,030/mo this rent would consume 59% of the median local household income ($62k/yr) (locally 797% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.