1361 Almond St · Selma, CA 93662

$365,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,224 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 51 Days on market

Built 1979 7,701 sqft lot Est $328k · 11% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.7/30.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +2.4/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Adorable home, 3/2 Established neighborhood. Move in ready.

Key facts

• Large front yard
• Ample parking
• Solar energy

Tags

• LARGE FRONT YARD
• AMPLE PARKING
• BACKYARD SPACE
• SOLAR ENERGY
• QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD
• EASY ACCESS TO SCHOOLS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $365k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $29 ($350/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $303k (17.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $303k (17.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.8% in Selma — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#658 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A-, commute B+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, employment F.
• Selma Unified (town): math 20% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #250 of 517 in CA (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Theodore Roosevelt Elementary (636 students, 91% FRL); Abraham Lincoln Middle (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #277 of 498 statewide, top 73%, 888 students, 91% FRL); Selma High (math 22% / reading 63%, grade F, #466 of 1,170 statewide, top 40%, 1,742 students, 88% FRL) — zoned schools average 90% FRL vs 73% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 60 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,426 units permitted in Fresno County in 2024 (296 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,030/mo this rent would consume 59% of the median local household income ($62k/yr) (locally 797% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fresno County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($354k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $302,959 (17.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.34%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $328,032
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1361 Almond St	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,224 (0%)	2mo	$360,000	$294	98
1358 Peach St	0.14mi	3/1.8	1,141 (-7%)	18mo	$329,900	$289	67
2530 B St	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,252 (+2%)	6mo	$336,000	$268	63
1441 Tucker St	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,104 (-10%)	12mo	$315,000	$285	62
1834 Young	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,122 (-8%)	5mo	$320,000	$285	55
1330 Merced St	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,260 (+3%)	10mo	$335,000	$266	54
2147 Nebraska Ave	0.61mi	4/1.8 (+1)	1,200 (-2%)	12mo	$340,000	$283	53
2055 Orange Ave	0.35mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,120 (-8%)	15mo	$110,000	$98	48
2055 Orange Ave	0.35mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,120 (-8%)	15mo	$110,000	$98	48
2710 C St	0.69mi	3/1.0	1,125 (-8%)	5mo	$300,000	$267	46
2710 C St	0.69mi	3/1.0	1,125 (-8%)	5mo	$300,000	$267	46
2131 Yerba St	0.66mi	4/1.8 (+1)	1,296 (+6%)	19mo	$305,000	$235	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-57,342
• Equity at exit: $54,423

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-47,752
• Equity at exit: $31,559

Cash invested: $102,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93662

• Home prices YoY: -32.6%
• Active inventory: 60
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,030 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,914
• Tax from tax record: −$298 /mo · $3,577/yr
• Insurance: −$152
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$636
• Net cashflow: $29

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,993

Max offer price $365,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $236	-5% $132	+0% $29	+5% $-74	+10% $-177
Rent	-10% $-210	-5% $-91	+0% $29	+5% $149	+10% $268
Rate	-1.0pp $213	-0.5pp $122	base $29	+0.5pp $-65	+1.0pp $-162

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $91,250
• Closing costs: $10,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1250 Rorden Ave Unit 802 Selma, CA	2.0	2.0	1210	$3,750	$3.10	2d	1	0.26mi
1650 Floral Ave Selma, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	800	$1,799	$2.25	2d	2	0.99mi
3069 Thompson Ave Selma, CA	4.0	2.0	1250	$2,175	$1.74	44d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-15
   soldstatus $360,000
2. 2026-03-19
   status Pending
3. 2026-01-27
   listed $365,000 Active
4. 2017-11-08
   soldstatus $191,000 59-char remark

   Show marketing remark (59 chars)

   Adorable home, 3/2 Established neighborhood. Move in ready.

5. 2017-11-08
   soldstatus $191,000

   Show marketing remark (59 chars)

   Adorable home, 3/2 Established neighborhood. Move in ready.

6. 2017-08-22
   listed $200,000 59-char remark

   Show marketing remark (59 chars)

   Adorable home, 3/2 Established neighborhood. Move in ready.

7. 2017-05-09
   soldstatus $130,000
8. 1980-01-26
   soldstatus $59,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,577 · $298/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,577 · $298/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 41 unhealthy d/yr today · 45 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,355
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,446
• − Property taxes: −$3,577
• − Insurance: −$1,825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,908
• − Management: −$2,908
• − Depreciation: −$10,618
• Taxable loss: −$5,927
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,423
• After-tax cash flow: $1,772/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Selma Unified
• NCES district ID: 0636270
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▲ 14.00%
• Median HH income: $42,026
• Composite: 32.75/100
• National rank: #5636
• State rank: #250 of 517 in CA

Livability — Selma

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #658
• US rank: #20374

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living D- Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Selma, CA
• County: Fresno County · 834,801 people
• City population: 29,419
• Metro: Fresno, CA
• Population (ZIP): 29,419
• Household income: $61,564
• Rent vs Own: 41.2% rent · 58.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 797.0

Population outlook (Fresno County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,042,971 people
• By 2030: 1,072,198 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 1,122,408 · +7.6%
• By 2050: 1,157,251 · +11.0%
• By 2075: 1,182,575 · +13.4%
• By 2100: 1,105,899 · +6.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 79% Two or more races 19% White 14% Asian 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 77%
• Common ancestry: Russian 1% Iranian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 50% English-only · Spanish 47% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Fresno

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.5% · R 50.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: 2.1pp · 2024: -4.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.4 2020: D+7.8 2016: D+3.9 2012: R+2.9 2008: D+2.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -178.57%
• Current HPI: 369.7645
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Fresno, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+505.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Sold (Public Records) $360,000 Public Records
• 2026-03-19 Pending — FRESNOMLS
• 2026-01-27 Listed $365,000 FRESNOMLS
• 2017-11-08 Sold (Public Records) $191,000 Public Records
• 2017-11-08 Sold (MLS) $191,000 TCMLS
• 2017-08-22 Listed $200,000 TCMLS
• 2017-05-09 Sold (Public Records) $130,000 Public Records
• 1980-01-26 Sold (Public Records) $59,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,577 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.