4 bd · 2.5 ba ·
2,115 sqft ·
Built 2026
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 21 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$5,500/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$2,570
Tax + insurance
−$817
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$1,155
Net cashflow
$959/mo
Annual
$11,505/yr
Cap rate
8.64%
Cash-on-cash
8.39%
DSCR
1.37
1% rule
1.12%
Cash to close
$137,200
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $490k. Condition is rated poor.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $959 ($12k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $490k).
It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($483k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $483k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 67/100 on livability (#562 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
Ector County ISD (urban): math 22% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #707 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Zoned schools: Permian H S (math 19% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,333 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 3,978 students, 51% FRL).
Market conditions: 80 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,004 units permitted in Ector County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Ector County population projected at +78% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Questions for listing agent
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-HNJ2AGCXB2CSS1
· Data 1 day agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29