21550 Poinciana St

Southfield, MI 48033

$165,000D+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · Built 1972 · SingleFamily · Active · 28 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,723/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax + insurance: −$462
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$362
• Net cashflow: $33/mo
• Annual: $401/yr
• Cap rate: 6.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.87%
• DSCR: 1.04
• 1% rule: 1.04%
• Cash to close: $46,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $33 ($401/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $163k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#248 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, crime F, amenities F.
• Southfield Public School District (urban): math 17% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #392 of 540 in MI (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Glenn W Levey Middle School (math 8% / reading 22%, grade F, #453 of 493 statewide, top 93%, 316 students, 62% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 15% at this address vs 27% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Southfield Public School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.0%/yr); 82 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,614 units permitted in Oakland County in 2024 (721 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Oakland County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 20 sale attempts since 27y ago; this cycle's ask is 10212% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $137k; 20% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.6% in Southfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.