1562 Raintree Lakes Cir

Big Sandy, TX 75755

$109,900C

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Built 1999 · Manufactured · Active · 77 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,172/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$576
• Tax + insurance: −$183
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$246
• Net cashflow: $166/mo
• Annual: $1,995/yr
• Cap rate: 8.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.48%
• DSCR: 1.29
• 1% rule: 1.07%
• Cash to close: $30,772

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $110k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $166 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $110k).
• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($103k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $103k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $760 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#710 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Harmony ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #224 of 826 in TX (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 101 active listings in the ZIP; 34 units permitted in Upshur County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Upshur County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 51% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.