1562 Raintree Lakes Cir · Big Sandy, TX 75755

$109,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured · 77 Days on market

Built 1999 Good condition 0.36 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Neat as a pin sitting on hilltop with amazing lake view. This mobile home has been updated. This property is just minutes from Gilmer and located in Harmony ISD. Recently installed aerobic system, RV hook ups, high speed internet and lake views just across the street. This makes the perfect weekend property or a great starter home as well.

Key facts

• Rv hook ups
• Updated
• High speed internet

Tags

• LAKE VIEW
• UPDATED
• AEROBIC SYSTEM
• RV HOOK UPS
• HIGH SPEED INTERNET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $110k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $166 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $103k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#710 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Harmony ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #224 of 826 in TX (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 101 active listings in the ZIP; 34 units permitted in Upshur County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $760 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Upshur County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($103k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 51% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $103,306 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.48%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-7,203
• Equity at exit: $16,386

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.24×
• Total profit: $7,434
• Equity at exit: $9,502

Cash invested: $30,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75755

• Home prices YoY: -18.6%
• Active inventory: 101
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,172 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$576
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$137 /mo · $1,648/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$246
• Net cashflow: $166

Break-even live

Break-even rent $961

Max offer price $109,900

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,475
• Closing costs: $3,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-10
   days on market $109,900 Active 77 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $109,900 Active 76 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $109,900 Active 75 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $109,900 Active 74 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $109,900 Active 71 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $109,900 Active 70 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $109,900 Active 69 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $109,900 Active 68 DOM
9. 2026-03-24
   listed $109,900 Active 341-char remark

   Show marketing remark (341 chars)

   Neat as a pin sitting on hilltop with amazing lake view. This mobile home has been updated. This property is just minutes from Gilmer and located in Harmony ISD. Recently installed aerobic system, RV hook ups, high speed internet and lake views just across the street. This makes the perfect weekend property or a great starter home as well.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 51% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,062
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,156
• − Property taxes: −$1,648
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,125
• − Management: −$1,125
• − Depreciation: −$3,197
• Taxable income: $261
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$63
• After-tax cash flow: $1,932/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This mobile home is in good condition with recent updates, making it a great starter home or weekend property. It has a good curb appeal and is located in a desirable area.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value.
• Both New flooring — Improves aesthetics and functionality.
• Both Kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and adds value.
• Both Bathroom fixtures — Modernizes the bathroom and adds value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value. ↑
• Both New flooring — Improves aesthetics and functionality. ↑
• Both Kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and adds value. ↑
• Both Bathroom fixtures — Modernizes the bathroom and adds value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harmony ISD
• NCES district ID: 4822560
• Math proficiency: 48% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,303
• Composite: 40.47/100
• National rank: #3721
• State rank: #224 of 826 in TX

Livability — Big Sandy

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #710
• US rank: #13298

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A- Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,863

Population outlook (Upshur County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 42,771 people
• By 2030: 43,788 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 45,574 · +6.6%
• By 2050: 46,683 · +9.1%
• By 2075: 49,137 · +14.9%
• By 2100: 47,457 · +11.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Black 13% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 5% Slovak 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Upshur

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+71.0) · D 14.2% · R 85.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.0pp toward R · 2008: -49.0pp · 2024: -71.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+71.0 2020: R+68.5 2016: R+68.0 2012: R+59.8 2008: R+49.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -43.30%
• Current HPI: 189.9675
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-24 Listed $109,900 LAAR