4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,426 sqft ·
Built 2026
· Land
· Active
· 26 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,549/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,547
Tax + insurance
−$492
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$535
Net cashflow
$-25/mo
Annual
$-294/yr
Cap rate
6.19%
Cash-on-cash
-0.36%
DSCR
0.98
1% rule
0.86%
Cash to close
$82,597
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $295k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-25 ($-294/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $291k (1.2% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $255k (13.6% below list).
It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $255k (13.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 65/100 on livability (#655 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
Charlotte (suburban): math 54% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #22 of 73 in FL (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Kingsway Elementary School (math 55% / reading 53%, grade C, #936 of 2,144 statewide, top 44%, 596 students, 58% FRL); Port Charlotte Middle School (math 59% / reading 50%, grade B-, #183 of 571 statewide, top 34%, 877 students, 55% FRL); Charlotte High School (math 44% / reading 46%, grade D-, #228 of 667 statewide, top 35%, 1,994 students, 41% FRL) — zoned schools at 51% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.0%/yr); 603 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,585 units permitted in Charlotte County in 2024 (703 in 5+ unit buildings).
Charlotte County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Current owner paid $16k; list at $295k implies a 1744% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.4% in Port Charlotte — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $2,549/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($64k/yr) (locally 612% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-HP9ETK9N4CAK4J
· Data 4 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29