4907 31st Ave

New York, NY 11377

$475,000F

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 3,100 sqft · Built 1975 · Townhouse · Active · 235 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,117/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,491
• Tax + insurance: −$673
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$655
• Net cashflow: $-702/mo
• Annual: $-8,424/yr
• Cap rate: 4.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.33%
• DSCR: 0.72
• 1% rule: 0.66%
• Cash to close: $133,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $475k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-702 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $351k (26.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $312k (34.4% below list).
• It's been on market 235 days — a 12% lower offer ($418k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $312k (34.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.1%/yr); 349 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 5,302 units permitted in Queens County in 2024 (4,918 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Queens County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $350k; 36% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,117/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($73k/yr) (locally 5474% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 235 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?