4907 31st Ave · New York, NY 11377

$475,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 3,100 sqft · Townhouse public records · 235 Days on market

Built 1975

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This stunning, move-in ready Astoria co-op has been completely redone from top to bottom with modern finishes and thoughtful upgrades throughout. Features include: Bright, sun-filled living spaces with recessed lighting for a warm and inviting feel Brand-new kitchen featuring a Bosch dishwasher, touchless faucet, new cabinets, and new flooring Fully renovated bathroom with updated fixtures and contemporary design Ample storage, including a large walk-in closet and an additional hallway closet The well-maintained co-op offers excellent amenities, including an on-site laundry room and a private playground for residents. Ideally located close to the subway, this home provides easy access

Key facts

• Bosch dishwasher
• Touchless faucet
• New flooring

Tags

• MODERN FINISHES
• BRAND-NEW KITCHEN
• BOSCH DISHWASHER
• TOUCHLESS FAUCET
• NEW CABINETS
• NEW FLOORING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $475k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-702 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $351k (26.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $312k (34.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $312k (34.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.1%/yr); 349 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 5,302 units permitted in Queens County in 2024 (4,918 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,117/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($73k/yr) (locally 5474% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Queens County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 235 days — a 12% lower offer ($418k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $350k; 36% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $311,679 (34.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 235 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.33%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 12.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.09% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-111,717
• Equity at exit: $70,824

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-111,276
• Equity at exit: $41,069

Cash invested: $133,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City New York: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+34

Rent Stabilization Code; HSTPA; 6+ months in housing court.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11377

• Home prices YoY: -28.8%
• Rents YoY: 6.1%
• Active inventory: 349
• Price-to-rent: 12.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,117 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,491
• Tax from tax record: −$475 /mo · $5,705/yr
• Insurance: −$198
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$655
• Net cashflow: $-702

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,005

Max offer price $350,990

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $118,750
• Closing costs: $14,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2812 37th St Astoria, NY	3.0	1.5	2200	$4,700	$2.14	19d	1	0.66mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $475,000 Active 235 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $475,000 Active 234 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $475,000 Active 232 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $475,000 Active 230 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $475,000 Active 226 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $475,000 Active 225 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $475,000 Active 220 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $475,000 Active 218 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $475,000 Active 217 DOM
10. 2025-10-26
    listed $475,000 Active
11. 1998-11-09
    soldstatus $350,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,705 · $475/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,866 · $572/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,161/yr (+$97/mo · 20.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 52% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,401
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,607
• − Property taxes: −$5,705
• − Insurance: −$2,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,992
• − Management: −$2,992
• − Depreciation: −$13,818
• Taxable loss: −$17,088
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,101
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,323/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — New York

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #4188

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A- Housing C+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New York, NY
• County: Queens County · 1,914,869 people
• City population: 7,731,280
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 81,690
• Household income: $73,073
• Rent vs Own: 70.5% rent · 29.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 5474.0

Population outlook (Queens County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,546,320 people
• By 2030: 2,643,059 · +3.8%
• By 2040: 2,815,563 · +10.6%
• By 2050: 2,944,423 · +15.6%
• By 2075: 3,123,338 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 3,098,688 · +21.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 40% Asian 36% Two or more races 20% White 20% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Puerto Rican 4% Dominican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 56% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 27% English-only · Spanish 34% Other Indo-European 16% Chinese 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Queens

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.6) · D 62.3% · R 37.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 50.8pp · 2024: 24.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.6 2020: D+45.2 2016: D+53.4 2012: D+58.5 2008: D+50.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -110.83%
• Current HPI: 273.9408
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.09%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+35.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-26 Listed $475,000 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 1998-11-09 Sold (Public Records) $350,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,705 · +3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.