4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,789 sqft ·
Built 2021
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 21 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,297/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,626
Tax + insurance
−$218
HOA
−$44
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$482
Net cashflow
$-74/mo
Annual
$-884/yr
Cap rate
6.01%
Cash-on-cash
-1.02%
DSCR
0.95
1% rule
0.74%
Cash to close
$86,800
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $310k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-74 ($-884/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $297k (4.2% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $230k (25.9% below list).
It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($305k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $230k (25.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 61/100 on livability (#241 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-, crime B; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
Baldwin County (rural): math 33% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #18 of 129 in AL (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Foley Middle School (math 11% / reading 36%, grade F, #172 of 257 statewide, top 68%, 783 students, 82% FRL); Foley High School (math 24% / reading 25%, grade F, #118 of 305 statewide, top 45%, 1,578 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 38% district-wide (40 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 24% at this address vs 45% district-wide (-21 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Baldwin County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 875 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,883 units permitted in Baldwin County in 2024 (481 in 5+ unit buildings).
Baldwin County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
4 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.0% in Foley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
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· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29