166 Red Bird Ln

Drakes Branch, VA 23967

$199,000D+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · Built 2000 · Manufactured · Pending · 40 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,438/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax + insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$302
• Net cashflow: $-27/mo
• Annual: $-329/yr
• Cap rate: 6.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.59%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 0.72%
• Cash to close: $55,720

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $199k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-27 ($-329/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $194k (2.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $144k (27.8% below list).
• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($193k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $144k (27.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (7.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#464 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Charlotte County Public School District (rural): math 51% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #59 of 131 in VA (top 45%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Bacon District Elementary (math 54% / reading 64%, grade B-, #536 of 1,108 statewide, top 51%, 169 students, 85% FRL); Central Middle (math 49% / reading 69%, grade B, #166 of 342 statewide, top 50%, 370 students, 85% FRL); Randolph-Henry High (math 47% / reading 82%, grade B-, #213 of 319 statewide, top 69%, 478 students, 84% FRL) — zoned schools average 85% FRL vs 48% district-wide (37 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 5 active listings in the ZIP; 39 units permitted in Charlotte County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Charlotte County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (7.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.